Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (4.10-4.14)

Macro aspect: Abroad, the United States has hinted that if the Syrian government uses chemical weapons again or deploys barrel bombs, it will be open to further strikes against Syria, and rising geopolitical risks and rising tensions in the French presidential election have heightened market concerns
.
Domestically, this week in the aluminum market social inventory continued to increase and black plunge background, aluminum prices once fluctuated down, due to the improvement of China's trade situation during the week, coupled with the decline in social inventory and market supply-side rumors, the aluminum market ignored the weak market and ushered in a sharp rebound
.
Data show that China's import and export in March both exceeded expectations, trade balance also turned negative to positive, the first quarter continued last year's stable and good trend, economic development prospects to boost market sentiment, support the base metals market, aluminum prices once rose, recovering the previous decline
.

Market: At the beginning of this week, aluminum prices fell all the way, downstream bearish on the future market led to a light aluminum market, and holders of goods have more funds on hand, the market supply is still more, holding goods continue to ship vigorously, but few price cuts to make profits, starting on Thursday, aluminum prices jumped, traders raised prices and smelters also controlled shipments to raise prices, downstream just need to replenish inventory for weekend production, the market picked up
。 On Friday, the market due to the close delivery period, the willingness of holders to hold up the price is not reduced, the morning low-price receiving part is canceled with the late quotation of aluminum pulling up, the spot premium continues to expand, the downstream continues to chase up, the market trading situation is more active, the afternoon quotation is generally high, difficult to receive goods
.

In terms of inventory: Lun aluminum inventory continued to decline sharply, the latest inventory reported 1759850 metric tons, and a total of 58,450 metric tons of inventory was reduced this week, a decrease of about 3.
2%; The total aluminum stock on the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week was 345942 tons, an increase of 5,981 tons, or about 1.
8%,
from last week.
Fundamentally, London aluminum inventories continued to decline, down 55% from the same period last year, approaching 1.
75 million tonnes of stocks
.
Domestically, aluminum registered warehouse receipts continued to increase, and the number of market positions also continued to increase, reaching a high level
during the year.
In addition, as of April 13, the domestic social inventory fell slightly to 1.
206 million tons, down 05,000 tons from the beginning of the week, and the electrolytic aluminum social inventory eased to help the aluminum market
.

In the future market: this week, the Shanghai aluminum index increased its position upward, obviously going against the market
.
At present, various rumors in the market that the aluminum market capacity policy is about to land, big money is about to move, with the rebound of China's economic data lows, the market is optimistic about China's first quarter GDP, fixed asset investment, retail sales of social consumer goods next week, aluminum prices may be boosted; However, peripheral geopolitics is full of too much uncertainty, and the escalation of geopolitical concerns suppresses the upside of metal prices, and it is expected that short-term aluminum price shocks will be strong
.