Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (3.6-3.10)

Macro: Abroad, the US February non-farm payrolls data released, as the most important economic data indicator before the Fed's March interest rate meeting, the ultra-beautiful employment rate shows that the US economy is performing well, paving the way for the Fed to raise interest rates next week, the US dollar rebounded strongly, putting pressure on the base metal trend, before the opening of the Fed meeting next Tuesday, the market risk aversion heated up, the US dollar still maintained high expectations, aluminum prices still face pressure
from the US dollar 。 Domestically, the Chinese government revised down this year's GDP growth index to 6.
5%, while other major economic indicators have also been lowered, commodity prices are under pressure overall, non-ferrous metals are under obvious pressure, and aluminum prices are generally weak
.

Market: In March, downstream orders in various sectors rebounded significantly, processing enterprises' replenishment demand gradually picked up, coupled with a sharp decline in aluminum prices, and the downstream active buying near the spot price of 13,500 yuan / ton increased significantly
.
This week's spot trading is better than the previous week, the early week plunge made the downstream cautious, but as the spot price stabilized at 13400-13500 yuan / ton, the market began to become active in the second half of the week, as the peak season approached, while the futures market faced delivery, holders shipped sharply, and downstream also replenished the dip
.
On the last trading day of the week, the overall shipment of the market is still good, the downstream continues to bargain replenishment, the market trading situation also maintained a good trend, in the afternoon with the aluminum market price soared, due to the previous days to receive more goods, the downstream again waited and see, but traders followed the trend of the water shipment
.

In terms of inventory: the inventory of Lun aluminum showed a straight downward trend, the latest inventory reported 2068525 metric tons, and the total inventory decreased by 92,400 metric tons this week, a decrease of about 4.
3%; The total aluminum stock on the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week was 268824 tons, an increase of 47,766 tons from last week, an increase of about 21.
6%.

As of March 9, the total aluminum inventory of the five domestic regions was 1.
122 million tons, and the inventory reached a new high, and the spot maintained the discount; however, with the overall decline in aluminum prices, the discount of the spot market has narrowed, and the signs of joint price support by smelters and traders have increased
.
Although spot inventory continues to increase, but downstream demand began to improve significantly, and close to delivery, it is expected that short-term spot transactions are still good, the discount before delivery narrowed to about 50 yuan / ton, after the change of month or will return to the discount 200-discount 100 yuan / ton range
.

Future market analysis: In summary, the recent domestic aluminum inventory continues to increase, the high inventory inhibits the trend of aluminum prices, and the trend of Shanghai aluminum external strength and internal weakness is obvious
.
Considering that Lun aluminum inventory has maintained a downward trend, while the domestic social inventory has also eased to a certain extent, coupled with the market once again speculating on the supply side, so that the price of aluminum has risen sharply, although there is non-farm data about to be released, but it is difficult to significantly lower than expected, the dollar interest rate hike is also a sure thing, so there is support under the aluminum price, there is resistance, the current waiting for the interest rate hike to empty out and then look at the direction, the future market aluminum price or will be strong shock
.