Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (3.5-3.9)

Macroscopic: According to the instructions of the "two sessions", electrolytic aluminum capacity reduction work will be effectively promoted for a long time, which is in line with expectations, but it is not forced by government departments through indicators, in accordance with the industry structure optimization adjustment and enterprise reform requirements, orderly promotion of capacity reduction, so electrolytic aluminum capacity structure optimization will be a long-term process, aluminum prices single-day rise reflects a little excess, and will eventually return to fundamentals
。 In March, the northern heating season is ready to end, when a considerable number of electrolytic aluminum plants will increase production and put on the market, the supply will cause a new round of pressure, in view of the complexity of the actual implementation of the capacity plan, the short-term view of aluminum prices is bearish, medium and long-term cautious bullish
.

Market: The performance of the aluminum market this week has generally shown signs of
improvement.
The current market will still position 14,000 yuan as the approximate psychological threshold of purchases, when approaching this line, the number of bargain-hunting merchants will increase, and demand will improve significantly in the case of a significant decline in aluminum prices in the middle and later part of this week
.
East China market, this week the market supply is more abundant, middlemen to receive goods is acceptable, the current aluminum price is mostly accepted by downstream enterprises, and after the Lantern Festival, downstream starts increased significantly, the mood of entering the market received goods improved, and the transaction increased significantly compared with the previous week
.
South China market, this week South China aluminum prices compared with last week center of gravity down, as of Friday South China aluminum ingot ticket price between 14210-14310 yuan / ton, compared with last week down 230 yuan / ton, the trend is slightly inferior to South China
.
There are more local circulation sources, and the recovery of downstream demand is not as good as that in East China, and the market transaction is average
.

In terms of inventory: the trend of Lun aluminum inventory maintained a downward trend this week, the latest inventory reported 1311725 metric tons, and a total of 11,325 metric tons of inventory was reduced this week, down about 0.
86%; The total aluminum stock on the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week was 846913 tons, an increase of 4,517 tons, or about 0.
54%,
from last week.
This week's domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory, Shanghai area 431,000 tons, Wuxi area 907,000 tons, Hangzhou area 162,000 tons, Guangdong South China Sea 391,000 tons, Gongyi area 201,000 tons, Tianjin 59,000 tons, Chongqing 29,000 tons, Linyi 33,000 tons, 8 aluminum ingot stocks a total of 2.
213 million tons, an increase of 87,000 tons
from last week.

In the future: On the whole, inventory pressure is large, costs are down, demand recovery is slow, and during the National Two Sessions from March 3 to 20, the market may pay attention to the new policies of the two sessions, trading is cautious, and aluminum prices may be limited
.
In the short term, the market lacks good news support, aluminum price volatility continues, and affected by the weakness of surrounding metals, aluminum prices or passive follow-up, the main force continues to pay attention to the 14,000 mark support, it is expected to fall below the possibility of
falling later.