Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (3.20-3.24)

Macro: Abroad, the decline in the support of populist candidate Le Pen in the French election has weakened European uncertainties, coupled with recent market speculation that the European Central Bank may consider ending easing later, these factors have pushed the euro up, and also made the dollar passively beaten, falling below the 100-point mark, and aluminum prices have received some support
.
However, the US economic data is generally good, and Fed officials continue to release hawkish words, the dollar calmly maintains a narrow finishing trend around 99, and the rise in aluminum prices is limited
.
Domestically, recently, a number of hot cities and regions have strengthened the regulation and control of the property market, continued to focus on the "double limit", grasped the basic positioning of "houses are for living, not for speculation", and in-depth study of the basic institutional arrangements
that combine short-term and long-term.
Not only for "speculation" to curb speculation, but also for "living" stable expectations, guarantee demand, under the implementation of this policy, industrial aluminum demand or suppressed
.

Market: the early part of this week goods shock, market trading general, Wednesday aluminum prices fell to a low level, attracting downstream and traders to receive goods, Thursday aluminum prices after a sharp rebound, the market bought up not sell down, so that aluminum futures discount further narrowed, but Friday with the aluminum price fell again, downstream has recovered the warehouse, receiving goods is more active, the overall market trading continues to be active
.

In terms of inventory: the inventory of London aluminum continued to decline this week, the latest inventory was reported at 1,945,800 metric tons, and the total inventory was reduced by 50,200 metric tons this week, a decrease of about 2.
5%; The total aluminum stock on the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week was 326597 tons, an increase of 10,260 tons, or about 3.
2%,
from last week.
Domestic aluminum stocks, Shanghai social stocks of about 247,000 tons, down 05,000 tons from last week, and South China Sea social stocks of 367,000 tons, down 01,000 tons
from last week.
Domestic inventories are high, oversupply has not improved, and Shanghai aluminum inventories hit a one-year high
.
Due to the impact of environmental protection, the manufacturer's receipt of goods has decreased, and part of the source of goods has flowed to other places; In addition, many recyclers said that the current price is low, the market is poor, merchants choose to cover goods, there are not many shipments, and the market trading is light
.

Aftermarket analysis: At present, domestic and foreign inventories have encountered different circumstances, Shanghai aluminum inventory has soared 214% since the Spring Festival, and is currently at an 11-month high, while Lun aluminum inventory has fallen for nearly four weeks, falling by more than 11% since this month, and the latest inventory has reached a new low
in nearly nine years.
Domestic inventories have increased this week, the market oversupply continues, and aluminum prices are under pressure
.
This week's aluminum price trend is strong outside and weak inside, and domestic inventories soared 212% during the year, indicating that inventory pressure is huge
.
Shanghai aluminum trend is weak, the overall maintenance in the range of 1.
35-14,000 fluctuations, short-term lack of good news guidance, it is expected that spot aluminum will continue to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations
next week.