Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (3.13-3.17)

Macro: Recent U.
S.
economic data has mostly been positive, boosting investors' bullish enthusiasm
.
In February, the United States added 235,000 non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate was 4.
7%, which cleared the way for interest rate hikes, in addition, the market's expectations for the probability of a rate hike this week have soared to about 90%, which means that even if the Fed announces a rate hike, it is difficult to make big waves in the market, the US interest rate hike bearish is digested, the dollar index continues to weaken, copper and aluminum and other base metals are supported and higher
.
However, the high level of aluminum inventory is not conducive to the rise in aluminum prices, lack of sustained rebound momentum, aluminum prices in the week upward weakness, is expected to have limited upper space, next week or still maintain volatility to stabilize the market
.

Market: At the beginning of this week, the plunge in futures made the downstream cautious, but with the arrival of the delivery day, the futures spot price spread narrowed, and the aluminum price once fell to around 13400 yuan / ton, downstream bargaining increased procurement, market trading began to become active in the second half of the week, and holders also reluctant to sell when aluminum prices
rebounded.
On Friday, the East China market was weak in the market, and the shipments of cargo holders did not weaken, but the willingness of downstream and middlemen to receive goods weakened
.
Overall, market shipments are still good, in the afternoon, with the collapse of aluminum market prices, spot discount once fell to C70 yuan / ton, holders vigorously shipped, downstream only slightly received, the market was once cold
.

In terms of inventory: Lun aluminum inventory continued to decline, the latest inventory reported 1,996,000 metric tons, and a total of 72,525 metric tons of inventory was reduced this week, a decrease of about 3.
5%; The total aluminum stock on the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week was 316337 tons, an increase of 47,513 tons, or about 17.
7%,
from last week.
As of March 16, according to the released inventory, the total inventory of the five places was 1.
143 million tons, an increase of 21,000 tons
from last Thursday.
Overall, the domestic aluminum phased surplus is still continuing, the rapid growth of production but weak consumption performance, aluminum prices or continue to come under pressure, and the medium-term is short thinking
.

Aftermarket analysis: This week the Fed raised interest rates as expected, due to the market digesting in advance, the profit was exhausted, aluminum prices ushered in a rebound market, Thursday Lun aluminum broke through the $1900 mark, the highest climbed to $1912.
5, at the same time, after the Fed rate hike boots landed, domestic aluminum prices once touched the 14000 pressure level, but aluminum inventories continued to increase and weak demand made aluminum prices rebound limited, price above the block
.
In the short term, subject to the pressure of inventory and demand, aluminum prices or repeated tests of the upper pressure level, the medium and long-term strong trend remains unchanged
.