Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (3.12-3.16)

Macro aspect: The dark cloud of the Sino-US trade war is gradually looming
.
The U.
S.
International Trade Commission said its investigation found that aluminum foil imports from China were hurting U.
S.
producers
.
That means the U.
S.
will impose tariffs
of up to 188 percent on Chinese aluminum foil exporters.
China has also taken countermeasures, with some institutions pointing out that China is gradually reducing its holdings of U.
S.
bonds, which have hit a six-month low, which is bound to raise the cost of U.
S.
debt borrowing and hit U.
S.
stocks
.
Therefore, there is a certain skepticism about Trump's policies in the United States
.
With the progress of "Russiagate", the risk of Trump's impeachment has risen again, which has also affected U.
S.
stocks, the dollar has also restrengthened, and the price of aluminum in the external market has fallen all the way, and finally lost the $2100 mark
.

Market: The performance of the current aluminum market has improved to a certain extent compared with last week
.
Although the sharp decline in aluminum in the early part of this week made the downstream afraid to accept the goods, after the aluminum in the middle and later stages of this week was stable and warmed up, the downstream trading has improved
to a certain extent.
The current downstream mentality is still basically good, that the downward space of aluminum prices is relatively limited, so after falling below 14,000 yuan, the power of the following market has begun to increase, and the mentality of buying up and not buying down appears
.
But they are still cautious about the recovery of current downstream production, and the volume of goods received is not much
.
The current aluminum price is at a recent low, so they are not in a hurry to replenish for a while, thinking that the situation of aluminum prices will last for a certain period of time, the current supply of goods in South China is also relatively abundant, and it is expected that the short-term fluctuation of aluminum prices in South China will be controlled in a small range
.

Inventory: This week, the trend of Lun aluminum inventory generally maintained a downward trend, and Thursday's inventory increased sharply, showing a small peak
.
The latest inventory reported 1306150 metric tons, and a total of 5,575 metric tons of stocks were reduced this week, down about 0.
43%; The total aluminum stock on the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week was 934216 tons, an increase of 87,303 tons, or about 10.
3%,
from last week.
Inventory, this week's domestic electrolytic aluminum social stocks, Shanghai area 437,000 tons, Wuxi area 920,000 tons, Hangzhou area 172,000 tons, Gongyi area 206,000 tons, Tianjin 58,000 tons, South China Sea area 425,000 tons, Chongqing 28,000 tons, 7 aluminum ingot stocks totaled 2.
246 million tons, an increase of 70,000 tons
from last week.

In the future market: under the historical high inventory, it is expected that the downward trend of domestic aluminum prices in the short term may be difficult to reverse, and the price has fallen below the important threshold support in recent days, and the trend has fluctuated down, but it has been proved that the strength of the cost support below is still sufficient, and the short-term deep fall space is not large, but due to the lack of positive news support, the weak shock trend remains unchanged
。 At present, the market still has certain concerns about the current situation of the aluminum market, the current high inventory, along with the question of the capacity reduction policy, and the downstream demand that has not improved so far in March, the domestic aluminum price in the inventory to the historical high at the same time, the following supporting force can remain sufficient is worth paying attention to, how the "golden three" needs to continue to test
.