Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (10.17-10.21)

Macro: This week, China's September CPI rose 1.
9% year-on-year, higher than expected, PPI turned positive for the first time in four and a half years, the main reason is due to the expansion of black prices, after the increase in the control of the property market on September 30, the real estate market in various places gradually cooled, the transaction volume of new houses fell sharply, coal, steel capacity reduction completed 80%, coal prices continued to rise
。 At the same time, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report released on Wednesday said that during the reporting period from late August to early October, economic activity in most parts of the United States expanded moderately, the dollar remained high, and non-ferrous metals came under obvious pressure, of which the external aluminum was seriously frustrated, dragged down by the decline of aluminum in the country, and the domestic Shanghai aluminum fell with it, but the decline was limited, and the trend of external weakness and internal strength was obvious
.

Market: Overall trading this week has fallen
from before the National Day holiday.
At the beginning of the week, the holders actively shipped, but approaching the change of month, traders maintained a cautious attitude, downstream enterprises consumed well, on-demand procurement, after the change of month, the holder shipped steadily, aluminum prices remained firm, Jiarun became the main circulation brand, traders maintained a wait-and-see attitude
。 Then the premium rose sharply, the overall transaction on Friday was good, the holder was willing to sell, the morning quotation in the Yangtze River average price of about +130 yuan / ton, the goods were instantly snapped up, and then the quotation in the Yangtze River average price + 150 yuan / ton or so, at first traders and downstream enterprises maintained a wait-and-see, but with the rise in futures prices, traders' willingness to receive goods has increased, downstream enterprises are willing
to stock.

In terms of stocks: LME aluminum stocks reported 2,165,700 tons as of October 21, an increase of 76,225 tons from last week, which is still close to the low of December 18, 2008 (2068925 tons); In the same period, the previous period of aluminum stocks reported 84,981 tons, a slight increase of 326 tons, a two-week increase, but far lower than the average inventory value of 233,000 tons during the year, close to the year's low of 83,775 tons
.
For the current aluminum market, aluminum inventory remains low is still one of the factors supporting aluminum prices, low inventory and spot high premium is not effectively solved in one day, aluminum prices are difficult to fall
sharply.
In the long run, the release of new production capacity may have a certain inhibitory effect on aluminum prices, and the later market still needs to be closely observed
.

Future market analysis: At present, the domestic aluminum price has gradually fallen from the high, of which Shanghai copper is supported by low inventory, and it still fluctuates repeatedly, and it is currently below the 5-day and 10-day line, still running above the 12,500 yuan / ton line, reducing positions and reducing positions
compared with last week.
At present, the market has been expecting that next week's arrivals from the northwest will increase, the downward pressure of Shanghai aluminum has increased greatly, and if the arrival does not meet expectations, Shanghai aluminum may still struggle upward, it is expected that next week's operating range is 12400-12660 yuan / ton, market divergence may increase
.