Analysis of aluminum price trend in the domestic spot market in August

Macro: Foreign, this month's external aluminum prices have been singing, at the beginning of the month due to the fall of the US dollar, and the strong heating up of domestic supply-side reform, the price has risen all the way, the highest intraday climbed to $2122.
5, a new high since March 2013, but obviously after breaking through the $2100 mark, the upward momentum weakened, but based on the fundamental positive boost, the decline was limited
。 Domestically, under the high song of Lun aluminum, the domestic aluminum price trend has also soared, at the beginning of the month Hebei Province issued the "Heavy Pollution Weather Response and Heating Season Peak Staggering Production Special Implementation Plan", requiring Hebei Province heating season electrolytic aluminum plant to limit production by more than 30%, after which the market broke out again heavy news, ordered Shandong Weiqiao and Xinfa to shut down electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 3.
21 million tons, aluminum prices were boosted by the favor, and there were round after round of soaring markets
。 At the end of the month, Shanghai aluminum showed a brief adjustment, but the overall upward trend remained unchanged, and September 15 is the fourth batch of supply-side reform deadline, the market is expected to release good news to stimulate aluminum prices to rise again, and aluminum prices are expected to be bullish in September
.

Market: this month, the market situation improved, but the transaction improvement is not obvious, the market trading is mainly reflected in traders, the market fluctuates greatly, the trade market trading is acceptable, but downstream enterprises due to high prices and too fast rise, procurement sentiment plummeted, more bargain on demand procurement, stockpiling is not much, the market once appeared in a state of priceless market, the overall transaction is limited
。 East China, Hebei heating season production limit and peak shift production plan announced, Shandong Development and Reform Commission ordered Weiqiao, Xinfa shut down electrolytic aluminum production capacity and a series of supply-side reform news frequently, stimulating August aluminum prices soared, becoming the most active month of the year, Yangtze River spot aluminum ingots rose from 14200 at the beginning of the month to above 16,000, as of the end of the month, Yangtze River spot aluminum ingot prices between 16110-16150 yuan / ton, up 1900 yuan / ton from the end of July, a monthly increase of 13.
35%.

。 South China, as of the end of the month, Foshan aluminum ingot ticket price in 16440-16540 yuan / ton, reached the high point of the year, compared with the end of July 2010 yuan / ton, a monthly increase of 13.
9%, market transactions, middlemen trading is acceptable, but downstream orders have not yet significantly improved, market demand has not changed much, downstream procurement efforts are small, dragging down transactions
.

Inventory: This month, Lun aluminum inventory first decreased and then increased, ending the continuous downward trend, because of the continued rise in Lun aluminum prices, the market has some profit-taking and closing positions, as of August 30, Lun aluminum inventory has reached 1.
32 million tons
。 As of August 25, the Shanghai Stock Exchange inventory reached about 490,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from the end of July, and reached a new high, and as of August 31, Shanghai social inventory reached 286,000 tons; Wuxi 654,000 tons; South China Sea 358,000 tons; Hangzhou 95,000 tons; Gongyi 118,000 tons; Tianjin 50,000 tons; Chongqing 23,000 tons, seven aluminum ingot stocks totaling 1.
584 million tons
.
Inventories continue to increase, still putting some pressure
on aluminum prices.
Although the high level of inventory continues to increase, the market is optimistic about the digestion of late inventory, and entering the traditional consumption season in September, it can be observed whether there will be an inflection point in inventory
.

Aftermarket analysis: At present, market merchants have different views on the aluminum price after the market, bullish and bearish voices are rising and falling, so before the balance force is completely broken, aluminum prices are expected to be dominated by strong
shocks.
Combined with the current market bullish atmosphere, the de-capacity limit in mid-September, the demand for gold nine silver ten is expected to begin to recover, etc.
, the overall price of aluminum in September is expected to remain strong, but pay attention to the possibility of technical adjustment of the price after the continuous rise
.
Overall, the game between current expectations and reality remains
.
Supply-side reform is an important force to promote the continuous upward movement of aluminum prices, and weak fundamentals have limited the increase, and in the short term, aluminum prices will remain strong and volatile
.