American economist corn weekly

Introduction: whether corn can rebound depends on the yield prospect in 2002 On April 24, the average spot price of soybeans in the middle of irinoyce reached the highest since the crop harvest in 2001, at $4.695 per bushel, 71 cents higher than the low point of the harvest In the same period, the price of spot corn is still in a depressed pattern, with a narrow range of fluctuations According to the average price of $1.865 on April 26, it is only 7 cents higher than the low point of harvest, and the price of corn is only 3 cents higher than the low point of contract set on April 12, 2002 So what are the reasons for the rise of corn price? For the rest of 2001 / 02, corn consumption is expected to remain positive The pork industry continues to expand slowly The U.S Department of Agriculture reported in April that the number of pigs in March was 1% higher than in the same period last year The increase in the number of pigs will support the domestic demand for feed and other aspects of corn consumption in the United States Based on the corn feed consumption in the first half of this year, the current slow expansion of pig population means that the feed and other consumption of corn this year will exceed the current estimate of the U.S Department of agriculture In addition, the expansion of ethanol consumption will also support the domestic consumption of corn The export prospect of corn has also improved, and the total export contract volume has exceeded that of the same period last year Cumulative exports are still 48 million bushels, or 4%, behind the same period last year, but new sales have been huge in the past month As of April 18, the total outstanding sales volume was 247 million bushels, an increase of 60 million bushels over the same period last year Outstanding sales to Japan increased by 14 million bushels and to unknown destinations by 37 million bushels Current sales data show that U.S exports in 2001 / 02 are likely to exceed those of last year, while the U.S Department of agriculture now forecasts that corn exports will be 10 million bushels less than last year However, in the fourth quarter of the 2000 / 01 market year, the export sales of corn in the United States were surprisingly large Last summer's shipments were 25 million bushels higher than in the fourth quarter of last year Shipment volume reached 220 million bushels in August 2001, the highest in the month The problem is that it may be difficult this year to recreate last summer's strong corn exports Corn shipments in the next 18 weeks will only average 41 million bushels to reach the USDA's export target of 1.925 billion bushels The average weekly export so far is 35 million bushels The average weekly export volume for the same period last year was 36 million bushels U.S corn stocks at the end of September 1, 2002 may be slightly lower than current U.S Department of Agriculture estimates However, if corn production in the United States is going to be very large this year, the prospect of a slight decline in ending inventory is unlikely to significantly push up corn prices Therefore, the market will focus on the progress of crops in 2002 The beginning of corn planting is quite rapid, but due to the low temperature and rainy weather in the corn planting belt, the progress of corn planting may slow down significantly There will be more rain this week from east to east of Iowa Based on the experience of previous years, if corn planting is delayed due to rainy weather, it is not expected that corn area will be largely relayed to other areas unless the weather continues to be poor for most of May Generally speaking, if the crops are finally sown in time, the moisture content in spring is sufficient, which is beneficial to the prospect of per unit yield The market is also responding to the new farm bill, which clearly provides a higher loan rate for food and a lower loan rate for soybeans However, the adjustment of the loan rate may come too late to have a great impact on the seeding decision in 2002 Many farmers have made investment decisions, which will limit their flexibility in adjusting their planting intentions But the bottom line is that the increase in corn acreage in 2002 is not expected to change As usual, the price of corn in the next four months will mainly depend on how the market judges the production potential of corn in 2002 Historically, in the period from May to June, there was often a time when the market was worried about the outlook of corn production, which led to the rise of corn prices But that did not happen last year The annual peak of the previous market year was in December 2000 So far this year, the market's annual high has been in December 2001 So will this be the second year in a row when this unusual price trend occurs? Let's see VPC