American economist corn soybean weekly

Introduction: weather and USDA report affect the price trend of corn and soybean The author: dalergud The price of corn and soybean in the United States continues to show a strong seasonal trend, with high consumption and worrying production in the United States and the world supporting the price of corn and soybean In terms of soybeans, domestic crushing and export continued to be higher than USDA's forecast It is expected that China's return to the import market should maintain the high-speed operation of U.S exports, especially that Argentina is still in turmoil Based on the weekly export inspection report of the U.S Department of agriculture, the cumulative shipping volume of the United States by June 20 was 5% higher than that of the previous year The U.S Department of agriculture predicts exports will rise 3.5% this year The total volume of sales to be shipped as of June 13 was 97.5 million bushels, compared with 74.2 million bushels on the same day last year Similarly, the market is expected to squeeze 1.3 billion bushels in the first three quarters of this year, up 4.7% from the same period last year The USDA forecasts a 3.3% increase in squeezing this year In terms of corn, the export speed of the market in the second and third quarters of the year was higher than that of the previous year According to the U.S Department of agriculture's export inspection, the cumulative shipment as of June 20 was 3% higher than that of the same period last year However, as of June 13, the total sales volume to be shipped was 252.5 million bushels, compared with 290.1 million bushels on the same day of the previous year The U.S Department of agriculture forecasts exports of 1.925 billion bushels this year, down 10 million bushels from last year's shipping volume In the summer of 2001, corn exports were huge If the USDA's export forecasts are to be met, the recent high-speed shipping volume must continue The USDA June grain inventory report will be released on June 28 The market will use the June 1 corn inventory forecast to measure domestic corn consumption in the third quarter If the rate of consumption is in line with USDA's forecast, corn stocks on June 1 should be close to 3.67 billion bushels, about 250 million bushels less than the same day last year Based on usage estimates for the third quarter of this year, soybean stocks on June 1 should be close to 690 million bushels In addition to the grain inventory report, the market will also be interested in the area report released on June 28 Especially in the eastern corn planting belt, the report of sowing delay prediction area reflected more intention planting area than actual planting area However, the report will still be an important basis for measuring the final planting area of major crops The market expects the report to show that corn fields have been heavily converted to soybeans because of delays in planting season in some areas It is also expected that the report will reflect the fact that fields without wheat have been converted to other crops Some individual analysts have predicted a significant increase in Sorghum area compared to the March sowing intention report, as fields without wheat planted sorghum were replanted In addition to the specific crop area, the report will also provide predictions for some abandoned fields The weather situation and production forecast will dominate the price trend in the next two months Corn and soybean yield forecasts in the United States may be the most important price factors, but other changes will also be important judgment factors The market is now focusing on Australia's drought, floods in parts of China and Russia, and India's belated monsoon season In terms of coarse grain, the world output has been relatively high since 1995 / 96 Some countries have cut production, but the United States has been producing a lot since 1996 For wheat, since 1994 / 95 to 1995 / 96, the world output has been relatively high At present, stocks in the United States and the world are relatively low, and the prices of wheat and coarse grain are generally low These factors indicate that the decline of production may have a huge impact on prices The market is beginning to worry about production, but prices may be relatively conservative ahead of the US wheat tillering period (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: