Aluminum prices still have room to rise, but the height of the rise may be blocked

On the macro front, non-ferrous metals are under pressure due to strong employment data in the United States, which is widely expected to announce a 50 basis point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve on June 15
.

In terms of domestic supply, electrolytic aluminum production capacity increased steadily in May, but slowed down from before, coupled with the impact of Yunnan's production cuts, the increase in operating capacity slowed down
month-on-month.
The profit of alumina smelting is stable, and the newly expanded production capacity has been steadily landed, but the import volume has been suppressed; External interference factors subsided, superimposed smelting profits are good, it is expected that electrolytic aluminum production in June will continue to be high, but costs are still supported, and there is still a gap
in imports.

In terms of consumption, with the improvement of the epidemic, the current domestic consumption tends to improve, and the amount of aluminum ingot destocking is expected to continue to expand
.
However, due to the outbreak of repeated pledge events in warehouses, the spot in East and South China has a large discount, which has a greater impact on the spot market, but it is expected that the impact will be relatively short-term, and the final market transaction will still return to the supply and demand market
.

On the whole, the policy side is actively exerting force, the resumption of work in East China is in full swing, the demand side is expected to improve strongly, and the superimposed inventory continues to decline, and aluminum prices are expected to rise, but in view of the domestic supply-side pressure still exists, aluminum prices may rise highly or be resisted
.