Aluminum prices stabilized and the center of gravity shifted slightly upwards overall

The fluctuation of the outer plate aluminum is more obvious, the trend of first rising and then suppressing finally returned to the starting point, with only 0.
28% fluctuations in the whole month, which also shows that the current market is indeed in a more balanced supply and demand relationship, and the overall lack of momentum
to rise or fall.
As of July 31, the main market of Shanghai aluminum closed at 13,900 yuan / ton, a monthly increase of 0.
47%; Lun aluminum closed at $1799 / ton, up 0.
28%
on a monthly basis.

On the macro front, more and more central banks around the world have cut interest rates to stimulate the economy, and risk aversion has declined
.
The 10-year Treasury yield has been falling, and the US Treasury yield has inverted, adding to recession fears
.
In July, China's import and export performance was good, the data was better than expected and the previous value, and China's resilience to foreign trade in the context of trade frictions is still there
.

In terms of inventory, from the recent situation, the spot inventory of aluminum in the previous period began to fluctuate downward
after reaching a peak in early March.
Lun aluminum began to decline from mid-February, and aluminum ingot stocks began to continue to decline
.
Around the Spring Festival in 2019, domestic spot aluminum ingot inventories accumulated 485,000 tons, an increase of 38.
4% month-on-month, and the inventory growth rate was at a low level
in nearly 10 years.
Due to holiday factors, social aluminum ingot inventories continued to rebound
from mid-January.
After the holiday factor, the arrival of the consumption season in March also brought about another decline in primary aluminum stocks, and the pace accelerated
.
All indications are that the destocking cycle of primary aluminum is still continuing
.

Since July, the fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum have not changed much, and the overall market is still maintaining the market of off-season volatility
.
However, the impact of the macro level on non-ferrous metals as a whole is more obvious
.
The progress of Sino-US trade negotiations has always affected the nerves of the market, and the global quantitative easing and hawkish comments of the Federal Reserve have brought not only a sharp rise in the US dollar index and the weakening of gold, but also brought more obvious pressure
on major colored varieties.

From a fundamental point of view, aluminum ingot social inventory continued to decline after a slight rebound, and the decline narrowed, and the off-season of the downstream aluminum processing industry also made the market transaction relatively flat
.
In the future, as the off-season is coming to an end, some downstream processing companies will also stock up in advance, and it is expected that the demand for aluminum ingots will improve in mid-to-late August
.
From the plate point of view, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum will also maintain the trend of shock sorting, but the center of gravity is expected to continue to rise, and the operation maintains the strategy of high selling and low absorption, the first pressure level above is 14,000 yuan / ton, and the lower support level is 13,800 yuan / ton
.