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This week, aluminum prices fell back, with London aluminum falling by 1.
4% and Shanghai aluminum falling by 0.
37%; At present, the role of macro news on price guidance is gradually weakening, supply and demand side is still one of the leading factors in the trend of aluminum prices, in the context of serious restrictions on domestic production capacity, it is expected that subsequent aluminum prices may still rise, short-term or consolidation-based
.
In terms of the market, the price fluctuates greatly this week, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is heavier in the previous days, the stock of downstream enterprises is mostly reflected in Friday, the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays are approaching, and downstream enterprises can take advantage of the low to properly replenish inventory
.
East China: Yunnan, Guangxi, Guizhou and other places power cuts and production cuts are frequent, the government has increased the containment of the "two highs" phenomenon, the supply side to the aluminum price support is obvious, but during the period due to investors profit-taking, once high fall, fell below the 23,000 mark, as of Friday, East China spot aluminum prices in 22720-22760 yuan / ton, up 90 yuan
from last Friday.
South China: As of Friday, Foshan Nanhai aluminum ingot ticket price between 23,000-23,100 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton from last Friday, this week's South China market performance is not as good as East China, affected by prices, "Golden Nine" consumption season, downstream enterprise demand improvement is not obvious, the overall market transaction is general
.
In terms of news, the National Development and Reform Commission said that it will continue to release copper reserves, coupled with unreleased European inflation data that exceeded expectations, causing market concerns
.
Affected by the dual control of energy consumption, Guangxi, Yunnan and Xinjiang have successively issued policies to determine the problem of production reduction, superimposed on the recent Yunnan production restriction policy, requiring that the output of green aluminum from September to December should not be higher than that in August, and the production limit of electrolytic aluminum will continue for a long time; In August, the production of new energy vehicles increased by 202.
7% year-on-year, the peak season is approaching, aluminum demand is expected to pick up, social inventory is at a low level and in the destocking cycle, the medium and long-term state has issued a number of policies to support the development of green environmental protection industry, and the demand for new energy and photovoltaic industry is strong
.
Aluminum maintains a tight supply pattern, fundamental support is good, and aluminum prices have repeatedly reached new highs
.
In summary, under the background of intensifying power shortage and tightening of dual control of energy consumption, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter may be further expanded, superimposed on the new production capacity in the year or hopeless, the shutdown capacity is difficult to recover, with the gradual recovery of consumption, the price center of electrolytic aluminum is expected to move further up
.
