Aluminum prices rose again at the end of the day, and there may be a moderate recovery next week

Market focus: (1) According to data from the International Aluminium Association, global alumina production in May 2021 was 12.
166 million tons, an increase of 3.
86% month-on-month; A year-on-year increase of 8.
57%.

From January to May, global alumina production accumulated 58.
158 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.
07%.

Among them, China's alumina output in May was 6.
51 million tons, an increase of 3.
33% month-on-month; A year-on-year increase of 10.
90%.

From January to May this year, China's alumina output accumulated 31.
16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.
49%.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 69,818 tons, down 3,958 tons from the previous trading day; LME stocks were 1577175 tonnes, down 8,975 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum 2108 contract held 134788 lots, a daily decrease of 1419 lots, short positions of 130170 lots, a daily increase of 3209 lots, a net long position of 4618 lots, a daily increase of 1528 lots
.
Long reduction, short and net increase
.

Market Judgment: Investors await U.
S.
employment data to further clarify the Fed's policy stance
.
If the jobs data is better than expected, calls for a rate hike within the Fed will be louder
.
The press service of the Russian government confirmed that from August 1 to December 31 this year, aluminum produced in Russia will be subject to a 15% export tariff, which is expected to lead to a tightening supply in foreign primary aluminum markets and a climbing aluminum spot premium
.
Near the end of the month, China's carbon trading market is about to be officially listed, although the electrolytic aluminum industry is temporarily not included in the scope of trading, but the carbon trading price or give a certain guiding role, will affect the market's expectations
for aluminum smelting costs.
In addition, Yunnan and other places have reduced production, and the start of new production capacity has been slow
.
At the same time, with the advent of the off-season, downstream consumption is also weak, and some downstream are still waiting for the landing of aluminum ingots, waiting for the current spot purchase, and the overall trend is weak
in the near future.

At present, the macro and policy in the face of Shanghai aluminum price fluctuations continue to gradually decrease, the basic face of price support effect is remarkable, although the dumping of reserves and national level regulatory measures are continuous.
However, aluminum prices have always had some support above 1.
85, and the decline is limited; as far as the fundamentals of the future market are concerned, the weakening trend of supply and demand has been irreversible, but the short-term supply shortage and the low inventory under the continuous destocking still play a certain supporting effect on the price, it is expected that next week Shanghai aluminum may have a moderate rebound, but the pressure to break through the 19,000 mark is greater, if it fails to stand firm, or it will continue to decline, the main force of Shanghai aluminum can pay attention to the range of 1.
86-19,200 ranges, operate upstream and downstream bargain hunting, middlemen fast forward and fast out
。