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During the holiday, London aluminum rose 1%, the price rose to $2094.
5/mt, and LME stocks fell to 136,500 mt, down about 2,400 mt
from before the holiday.
Overseas crude oil prices have soared, and inflation expectations continue to rise
.
After the domestic aluminum price holiday, it is expected that the price will remain strong in a macro warm atmosphere
.
Although domestic inventories are expected to continue to accumulate after the holiday, the magnitude of accumulation will directly affect future market expectations, so it is still an important observation indicator
.
On the macro front, Biden's $1.
9 trillion stimulus plan accelerated, inflation expectations in the United States rose, while recent strong manufacturing data pushed 10-year Treasury yields upward, and the Japanese and Eurozone economies also warmed up in the fourth quarter as better-than-expected market sentiment
.
In terms of fundamentals, the arrival of East China after the holiday is general, the inventory performance is expected to be normal, the steel union statistics pre-holiday factory warehouse inventory of 120,000 tons, only an increase of about 24,000 tons from the end of January, February 10 Shanghai Free Trade Zone inventory of 37,800 tons, the growth rate slowed down, the upstream inventory backlog is limited, the impact of inventory after the holiday is not large, there will be no large amount of inventory arrival impact on the market situation, but aluminum rod inventory growth is significant, short-term inventory pressure performance is greater, because some rod factories have not stopped work; in terms of consumption, consumption performance before the holiday is stable, and the resumption of work after the holiday remains to be seen
。
At present, market sentiment is high, overseas inflation expectations have increased significantly, and at the same time, the US vaccine has accelerated vaccination, and the number of confirmed cases has dropped significantly compared with the previous period, accelerating the economic recovery stage; Domestically, the momentum of economic expansion has weakened, but exports and industrial production remain at a high level.
The pre-holiday inventory performance is better than expected, the post-holiday inventory performance is average, there will be no arrival impact on the market situation, and it is expected that the short-term after the holiday will still maintain capital sentiment to drive the market
.