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Aluminum prices ran strongly yesterday
.
Driven by Lun aluminum, as well as the seasonal accumulation pressure of domestic aluminum ingot social library and the problem of supply-side alumina production restrictions, it is expected that domestic Shanghai aluminum will remain high, and it is expected that it will not change
.
In terms of news, the recent outbreak in Guangxi has caused considerable pressure on the production and transportation of local electrolytic aluminum enterprises, and the completed production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Baise in Guangxi has reached 2.
315 million tons, accounting for 82.
2% of Guangxi's total production capacity, and it is necessary to pay attention to the specific impact of
the epidemic on production.
The overseas European energy crisis is still fermenting, due to the great uncertainty of overseas natural gas supply before the spring of March, production cuts may expand again, so you need to pay attention to overseas related news
.
Domestic fundamentals, after the correction of the dual-control atmosphere, various places have begun to resume production, mainly in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other places
.
At present, domestic operating capacity continues to recover, and production is expected to increase
slightly in February.
Post-holiday consumption is expected to be optimistic, and it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream resumption of work and the impact of environmental protection control in the
north.
In terms of inventory, the latest data shows that the accumulation of domestic social libraries is not as large as in previous years, of which the consumption areas of Nanhai, Gongyi, Shanghai and Hangzhou contributed the main increase, and Wuxi destocking mainly because the outbound goods were still available and the arrival was reduced
.
On February 7, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory was 866,000 tons, compared with 140,000 tons
before the holiday.
LME aluminum stocks fell 36,000 tonnes from the previous week to 775,000 tonnes
on Feb.
4.
Overall, the threat of the energy crisis to overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity may continue to the beginning of spring, and with the resumption of construction in various places after the holiday, driven by real estate stock construction, completion and infrastructure projects, consumption can be expected to pick up, it is expected that aluminum prices still have upward potential after the year, but it is necessary to be wary of the fluctuation of market expectations for interest rate hikes in the late first quarter
.
It is recommended to treat
unilaterally with the idea of bargain hunting and long.
