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Last week, the performance of Shanghai aluminum first suppressed and then rose, at the beginning of the week by the State Reserve aluminum rumors affected by the rumors of aluminum once fell sharply, while the Inner Mongolia area due to the dual control of energy consumption production capacity actually landed as much as expected, aluminum prices were suppressed, but with the price fell after the downstream procurement increase and the arrival of the social inventory inflection point, aluminum prices stabilized again to recover part of the decline
.
Mid-week aluminum ingot inventories ushered in a downward inflection point, down 0.
7 million tons from last week to 1.
243 million tons, and destocking is expected to continue
as peak season demand approaches.
The operating rate of processing enterprises continued to rise slightly during the week, the market gradually digested high aluminum prices, just needed to cash, the plate, strip and foil sector continued to maintain a high operating rate, and the building profile improved month-on-month, but the operating situation was still not as good as the same period of previous years, but the high price seriously inhibited the application of the photovoltaic field, and the operating rate fell significantly
.
On the supply side, the actual reduction in smelting production in Inner Mongolia was less than expected, and the impact of dual control of energy consumption on supply was limited, but high interest rates continued to stimulate new production and resumption of production, but the mid-week import window was closed, and the pressure on overseas supply was reduced
.
Overseas primary aluminum premium soared, the United States Midwest premium hit a new high since 2016, overseas demand recovery remained optimistic
.
Alumina prices remained stable during the week, and the spot market was relatively flat, but with the sharp rise in sea freight leading to the reduction of imports, electrolytic aluminum plants have increased their willingness to seek domestic sources, which is positive for alumina prices, but the larger new expectations and high stock of alumina production capacity during the year will continue to inhibit the rebound space
.
The inventory inflection point is expected to arrive, and the destocking range will become the focus of fundamental attention in the next stage, due to the limited actual impact of supply disruption in Inner Mongolia, coupled with the potential national reserve selling pressure, supply to weaken
price support.
However, from the perspective of the recovery of exports driven by the recovery of overseas demand and domestic demand, the demand expectation in the next two quarters is still relatively optimistic, which supports aluminum prices, and if there is no macro obvious disturbance, aluminum prices will fluctuate strongly
.
