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Aluminum prices rebounded slightly after a correction last week, with the main contract running between
12,000-12,500.
Yunnan storage and storage short-term has a boost to short-term aluminum prices, Yunnan region is a hydropower aluminum industry intensive development area, but also the main province to concentrate new production during the year, in the expectation of oversupply of electrolytic aluminum in the year, storage is expected to boost market sentiment
.
However, the actual effect of storage and storage still needs to be observed
.
From a fundamental point of view, the reduction of supply is still small, and with the rise of aluminum prices, the loss has narrowed sharply, the expectation of reduction has decreased, and the long-term weakness of the fundamentals has not been fundamentally reversed
.
The upside of aluminum prices is limited, but the pullback in the peak season is not deep, and it is expected that the price will be
mainly volatile.
In terms of stocks: LME stocks rose continuously to 1.
32 million tons, down 27,400 tons to 485,800 tons in the previous period, and social banks fell 78,000 tons to 1.
436 million tons
.
Last week, aluminum prices maintained a volatile adjustment trend, and the plunge in crude oil at the beginning of the week dragged down the realization of risk assets, and short-term aluminum prices were slightly supported
as crude oil stabilized and rebounded and domestic destocking was good.
At present, the big logic of electrolytic aluminum is still dragging down the global economy by the epidemic, and the excess situation of demand-affected industries remains unchanged, based on this judgment, it is not optimistic about the rebound
brought by the improvement of sentiment in the stage.
In addition, the cost side of alumina continued to fall sharply, resulting in a lack of cost support to weaken the subsequent pressure of aluminum production reduction
.
At present, the epidemic situation in many overseas countries has reached a turning point, and market sentiment has improved, but the follow-up demand pressure will continue to be realized, and the oversupply situation will not change
.
In addition, the decline in demand after the low-price replenishment of domestic enterprises will also have negative feedback, and they will not continue to be optimistic about the rebound at this stage
.
Industry News:
1.
The State Reserve Administration of the Czech Republic issued an announcement that a tender is being prepared for the sale of permanently unnecessary material reserve stocks: aluminium 8 898,6782 TUN, copper 1,366,408 TUN, zinc 1,431,851 TUN.
2.
Affected by the epidemic, the aluminum market is oversupplied, and Alcoa closed the Intalco aluminum smelter in the United States, cut capital expenditure of $100 million, and postponed the payment of $220 million in
pensions.
Alcoa's Intalco aluminum smelter in Washington will cut production by 230,000 tonnes by July 2020
.
In addition, Alcoa's other five smelters are in the red
.
The company has lowered the annual shipments of the aluminum division to 2.
90-3 million tons from its previous 3-3.
1 million tons; Bauxite and alumina shipments remain unchanged for the time being in 2020, with annual bauxite shipments expected to be between 48 million and 49 million dry tons, and total alumina shipments expected to be between
13.
6 million and 13.
7 million tons.
3.
On April 22, the U.
S
.
International Trade Commission unanimously issued a preliminary ruling, arguing that the unfair aluminum alloy import trade hurt U.
S.
producers.
The ruling held that the import of ordinary alloy aluminum plates from Bahrain, Brazil, Croatia, Egypt, Germany, Greece, India, Indonesia, Italy, South Korea, Oman, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain and Taiwan Province of China harmed the interests of American companies, and exports from Turkey were also affecting
American companies.
The preliminary injury ruling means that the antidumping and countervailing duty cases initiated by the United States on March 30, 2020 against imports from these countries will continue
.
Currently, preliminary countervailing duty rulings will be completed on June 3 and preliminary antidumping rulings on August 17, although these deadlines may be extended
.
