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Aluminum prices performed strongly this week, and under the dual stimulation of macro and fundamentals, the main price of Shanghai aluminum reached a new high
.
On the macro side, since the holiday, the early landing of the US fiscal stimulus policy and the Fed's continuous emphasis on easing policy have greatly encouraged the market, and macro sentiment has continued to improve; And fundamentals, the accumulation before and after the Spring Festival is less than expected, and at the same time affected by the control of energy consumption in Inner Mongolia in the middle of the week, the Mengdong smelter was forced to partially reduce production, both ends of supply and demand were supported, aluminum prices continued to rise, near the weekend, the high macro sentiment has converged, and the price ushered in a correction
.
The inventory of aluminum ingots recorded 1.
082 million tons in the middle of the week, an increase of 181,000 tons week-on-week, and the accumulation range was higher than last week, and the accumulation volume during the Spring Festival is expected to be in line with expectations
.
This week, processing enterprises continue to be in the resumption stage, especially before the holiday orders have been better plate and foil enterprises to resume work more actively, while building profiles and cable companies are relatively slow, due to the impact of the in-situ holiday, the pace of resumption of work after this year should be faster than in previous years, the agency expects that the operating rate of processing enterprises next week will return to the pre-holiday level
.
On the supply side, the three smelters in Mengdong were affected by the government's energy consumption control, forced to partially reduce production, the current production capacity declined, and the crisis of production reduction due to energy consumption control in the province cannot be completely lifted in the short term and there is a risk of further expansion, while the regional new investment progress is expected to be affected during the year, although Yunnan will return to the new investment rhythm after the holiday, but the overall supply is expected to decline
compared with before.
Alumina prices continued to decline in the middle of the week, transportation problems improved after the holiday, and operating capacity returned to a higher level, supply interference was no longer available, electrolytic aluminum plant procurement wait-and-see attitude was obvious, and market transactions were cold
.
After the holiday, the pace of electrolytic aluminum production accelerated and demand improved, but the current alumina production capacity still does not constitute a shortage situation, and alumina prices continue to run
at a low level.
Short-term macro sentiment may usher in an adjustment, and the positive news that appeared intensively in the first two weeks made the market too excited, and aluminum prices also ushered in an adjustment period
.
From a fundamental point of view, the resumption of work is progressing relatively smoothly, and it is expected to return to pre-holiday production levels next week, but the accumulation process may continue until the peak season demand opens
.
At present, the peak season demand is expected to be good, and the inventory will return to decomposition, and the logic of low inventory or reappear.
On the whole, short-term aluminum prices will usher in a slight adjustment, but the overall still has upside
.
