Aluminum prices open high and go low, and in the short term, we will treat it with a wait-and-see approach

In terms of news, the General Administration of Customs recently announced that China imported 197,134 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in March, down 4.
6%
year-on-year.
From January to March, the total import volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 533,136 tons, down 19.
4%
year-on-year.
Overseas, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has not yet made substantial progress, but the energy logic still has some support
for external aluminum prices.

In terms of the market, affected by the decline in transportation effectiveness and other reasons, the domestic aluminum arrival is small, superimposed on the aluminum retreat last week downstream replenishment of active shipments turned better, domestic aluminum social inventory is low, Shanghai aluminum short confidence is insufficient, reduce positions and leave the market, Shanghai aluminum is running strongly, the first trading session Shanghai aluminum 05 contract runs at 22100 yuan / ton, South China spot market downstream wait-and-see, buying is general, holders are actively shipping, premium weakening
.

On the supply side, the current profit of electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, the production capacity of Yunnan, Guangxi and other places continues to rise, the output is released one after another, and the supply pressure continues
.
In terms of consumption, the State Council recently issued the Notice on Effectively Ensuring the Smooth Operation of Freight Logistics, which requires attention to the recovery of transportation in the later period and the pre-holiday
stocking of the downstream.

In terms of inventory, domestic social treasury data shows that inventory has been slightly destocked
.
Overseas inventories fell to around 600,000 tonnes, a historic low
.
As of April 18, domestic aluminum ingot stocks were 1.
065 million tons, down 26,000 tons
from the previous week.
As of April 19, the LME aluminum depot decreased by 04,300 tons to 603,600 tons
.

In terms of price, the current aluminum market is affected by the epidemic There is a phased mismatch between supply and demand, and it is recommended to treat it with a wait-and-see approach in the short term, and it is expected that consumption will improve as the epidemic eases and the backlog of orders is released from terminals and downstream
.