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Last week's aluminum price volatility strengthened, the State Reserve issued an announcement on the evening of the 22nd to determine the first storage date and reserve dumping in 2021, the overall scale is not as good as market expectations, the price rebounded to a wide range around Wanjiu, and closed at 18930 yuan / ton on the 25th, up 2.
99%
last week.
In terms of demand, last week's spot quotation premium turned to discount again, downstream processing fees were adjusted downward, the overall fluctuation range was not obvious, because the downstream resumed work slowly after the Dragon Boat Festival, the market started slowly, and the overall circulation was not high, and then with the rumors of the State Reserve aluminum throwing were confirmed, the downstream benefited from the decline in aluminum prices, and the trading gradually improved
.
Last week, the State Reserve Bank released specific storage details, spot market prices rebounded, and downstream transactions were suppressed
again.
On the supply side, production in June is expected to fall by about 110,000 tons from May to 3.
205 million
.
In June, supply-side disturbances increased, and the impact of limited operating capacity in most regions continued to decline, and electrolytic aluminum production in June is expected to be about 3.
2 million tons, down 10-150,000 tons
from May.
The power curtailment in Yunnan affected 865,000 tons of annual production capacity, and the two new investment projects in Guangxi Bai Mine were suspended and restored
.
The relatively smooth new production is Hengkang, Shaanxi County, which is expected to reach production
in early July.
The import side is facing continuous Shanghai ratio retracement pressure, and import profits fluctuate sharply
above and below the profit and loss line.
At present, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues the rhythm of destocking, the inventory decreased by 16,000 tons during the week, and the overall water level is 874,000 tons, and it is expected that the destocking speed will further slow down
after the release of reserves.
In the past, prices will rebound to a certain extent in the period after the end of the dump, especially when
the selling volume does not meet market expectations.
The current market that sells less than expected reflects the rapid rebound of aluminum prices, and the fundamentals at the end of the peak season still have some support, and it is expected to show a strong trend of volatility in the short term
.
However, at the same time, if the National Reserve responds to the previous National Development and Reform Commission's monitoring of commodity prices, and carries out targeted work to ensure supply and price stability, according to the overall reaction of the reserve market and price changes, it is not ruled out that the State Reserve Bureau will dynamically increase the scale of storage in the future, and with the peak season turning weaker, aluminum prices will face strong upward pressure
.