Aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term

On the macro front, at present, the world is still shrouded in the shadow of economic stall, market demand is weak, and base metal prices are hovering
at low levels.
The recent price volatility is mainly caused
by changes in stable growth expectations and changes in Fed interest rate hike expectations.
The policy has not been implemented, overcapacity has not been effectively alleviated, downstream demand is weak, and the base metal market fluctuates
.

In terms of the market, the period of aluminum around the daily moving average oscillation in the month, some smelters to increase shipments at the high, affected by this, the attitude of the holders to sell softened, the market circulation supply is more sufficient than before the holiday, Qingming long holiday return, the period of aluminum high volatility, middlemen's profit margins are squeezed, receiving goods, downstream enterprises due to pre-holiday stocking still have inventory, not eager to enter the market at a high level, post-holiday market transactions have not yet returned
.

In terms of inventory, the latest inventory of London Metal Exchange (LME) 4-day London aluminum was 2776275 metric tons, down 6775 metric tons from the previous trading day's inventory, and the latest inventory of aluminum alloy was 16880 metric tons, unchanged
from the previous trading day's inventory.

From a fundamental point of view, the current aluminum consumption season, the phased supply and weak demand pattern is still there, seasonal demand provides support for the rise in aluminum prices, the aluminum market sentiment is strong, and the capital inflow drives the rise, it is recommended to pay attention to the 12000-12200 range
.
However, on the whole, the current tightening of real estate policies, if the future real estate sales are less than expected, the rise in aluminum prices may be affected, and the upper space is expected to be measurable
.