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Spot prices recovered slightly last week, and overall spot market price volatility declined, continuing to rebound
slightly below 15,000.
Downstream enterprises are afraid of high sentiment, and the market is mainly
based on on-demand procurement.
Aluminum prices maintained a strong trend this week, and the main contract was close to a new high level of the year
.
From the perspective of the plate, there is a bit of subsidized water meaning, that is, the current main contract is converted into the main contract, and the discount of the secondary main contract is made up
by increasing the price.
However, overall, aluminum is still a strong variety in nonferrous metals
.
In terms of macro, the spread of the overseas epidemic has not changed, the economic data of Europe and the United States continues to decline, the domestic monetary and fiscal policies are active, and the economic recovery is driven by investment such as large infrastructure, the economic data is gradually recovering, the downstream automobile industry recovers rapidly, and the non-ferrous metals as a whole maintain a strong trend
.
The recent escalation of the conflict between China and the United States has continued to aggravate overall market anxiety
.
Fundamentals move from expectations to reality, i.
e.
increased certainty of supply and decreased
certainty of demand.
There is no doubt that the increase in supply is undoubted, whether it is primary aluminum or scrap aluminum is expected to increase, the import substitution effect is also emerging, and the import data continues to maintain a high growth state
.
On the demand side, it can be paid attention to from three aspects, one is that the social library has once again achieved accumulation and warehouse receipts have increased, the second is that downstream processing fees continue to decline, and the third is that the downstream operating rate has declined
slightly.
In addition, what is more interesting is that the price of alumina has declined, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum has risen
again.
From the perspective of industry fundamentals, some upstream manufacturers have made profits of more than 2,000 yuan, production and production have accelerated, midstream spot inventories have begun to gradually stabilize, and downstream consumption recovery is expected to be strong
.
On the futures side, Hulun Aluminum has gradually entered the long-term and medium-term pressure-intensive area, maintaining the ability to impact this area in the near future, and paying attention to the long-short competition
.
Next week's aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly, for reference
only.
Pay attention to the range fluctuations
around 15000.
