Aluminum prices maintain a near-strong and far-weak structure Pay attention to the price inflection point

Affected by the sudden epidemic, the short-term impact of domestic terminal consumption is greater, the financial market is easily suppressed by the bearish atmosphere, and commodity prices are expected to be generally under downward pressure
within 1-2 weeks of opening.
During the domestic Spring Festival holiday, Lun Aluminum has fallen by more than 70 US dollars / ton, and the Shanghai aluminum opened in the previous period of the day fell sharply, and the main contract fell by 520 yuan / ton
during the day.
After returning from the holiday, the aluminum market focused on the impact
of local epidemic changes on the supply of raw materials and downstream consumption.

During the Spring Festival holiday (1.
24-1.
31), the dollar index rose first and then declined
.
At first, the market lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2020, the market risk aversion increased, and the US index and gold prices both strengthened
.
Subsequently, the market gave strong support to the US index in the confidence of the Fed to maintain the current interest rate, while the overseas market continued to weaken the euro due to the growing concern about the domestic epidemic, and the Brexit deadline caused the euro to continue to weaken, in addition, the US economic data performed well, multiple factors affected the US index continued to strengthen, once touching 98.
19, the highest
since December 2 last year.
Later, after the Fed chairman said policymakers were "uneasy about inflation remaining below the 2% target," U.
S.
indexes began to give up gains during the week
.
In the external environment, Europe successfully voted to pass the British deal to leave the European Union and landed smoothly, and the euro and pound both rebounded, causing the US index to fall sharply, giving up all the gains in the week
.

On the supply side, the supply of raw materials may be tight due to transportation problems after the holiday, and the planned resumption of production and the commissioning of new production capacity in the early stage are basically postponed due to the factors of the Spring Festival superimposed on the epidemic, and it is expected that the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum will be reduced
in February.
Baichuan data shows that as of January 31, China's electrolytic aluminum built capacity (calculated by devices with production capacity) was 46.
763 million tons, and the operating capacity was 36.
547 million tons, with an operating rate of 78.
15%.

In terms of demand, affected by the domestic epidemic, intermediate aluminum processing and terminal consumption will be delayed, electrolytic aluminum enterprises and social inventories will increase, and it is expected that the cumulative social inventory will exceed expectations to reach 1.
2 million tons
in mid-February.
If the overall epidemic can be controlled as hoped after the Lantern Festival, the downstream consumption of electrolytic aluminum will also recover, and the backlog of orders during the epidemic will make the downstream operating rate increase significantly in the short term, when the aluminum price will continue to maintain a near strong and far weak structure, and the price center of gravity is likely to return to above the 10,000 four mark, focusing on the price inflection point
.