Aluminum prices have recovered in recent days and pay attention to the height of the rebound

On the macro front, the financing situation of domestic housing enterprises has improved, and the market pessimism has been repaired, stimulating the price rebound
of black and colored varieties.
However, as the international market is currently trading 22-year interest rate hike expectations, the higher dollar also suppresses
non-ferrous prices.

Fundamentally, there was no large-scale production cut on the supply side in November, and the focus of trading was on marginal changes
in demand.
From the perspective of the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises, the overall operating rate of downstream increased
slightly due to the basic lifting of power rationing and the stimulation of new orders by low aluminum prices.

In terms of the end market, the depressed real estate sector and the automotive sector, which has always been intractable in the problem of core shortages, continue to weigh on the overall consumption of aluminum
.
Especially after entering the winter, it is expected that the consumption of construction in the northern region will decline
seasonally.
Although the current financing situation of real estate enterprises has improved, the impact on sentiment is greater than the recovery of actual industry demand, and the certainty of real estate downward is still strong
in the medium and long term.

In terms of inventory, the domestic social library has a slight destocking, the inventory inflection point signal has emerged, and the LME inventory continues the trend of destocking, and the destocking will form a strong support
for aluminum prices.

In summary, it is expected that short-term aluminum prices will rebound slightly, but the upper resistance is strong, and there is still room for downward adjustment of alumina, and cost support or further weakening, which is not conducive to the recovery of aluminum prices
.