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This week, aluminum prices first fell and then rose, the overall center of gravity moved slightly up, and the position continued to decline
slightly.
On Friday, the main force of Shanghai aluminum opened at 12335 yuan / ton in the morning, and after the opening, the bulls continued to close their positions and leave the market, causing the aluminum price to continue to fall, and fell below the 20/40 daily moving average support in the afternoon, and the bulls entered again at the end of the session to push up the aluminum price to repair part of the decline, closing at 12260 yuan / ton
.
On the macro front, the market continued to be volatile this week, and the US GDP in the second quarter was significantly lower than expected, raising concerns
about the sluggish global economic growth.
China's measures to curb asset bubbles could dampen investment sentiment
.
However, the expectation of a new round of easing in the world's major economies has strengthened, and there are also policy expectations for moderate expansion of aggregate demand in China, and the demand side is still expected to remain stable
.
Shanghai aluminum short-term has a certain pullback pressure, maintain the dip long single participation
.
In terms of the market, Shanghai aluminum ingots on Friday rose 180-200 yuan / ton for the month, the willingness of cargo holders to ship was positive, the willingness of downstream enterprises to receive goods became cold, and the overall transaction was suppressed
due to the end of the month.
As spot inventories remain at extremely low levels, premiums continue to remain high, and short-term aluminum prices will continue to be firm; In the medium term, the expansion of production capacity is slower than expected, and some companies reduce production to offset the launch of new capacity, and the recovery of electrolytic aluminum supply will be delayed
.
On the plate, there is strong support below 12,000 Shanghai aluminum, and at the same time, there is strong pressure on the moving average above, and the upper and lower space is not large, continuing the range shock pattern, patiently waiting for the opportunity to sell short at a high level
.
At present, it seems that the long and short are more cautious, the willingness to chase up and kill is not resolute, short-term operation is the mainstay, profit is to leave the market and wait and see, the center of gravity of aluminum has moved up, stable above the 40-day moving average, or supported by Lun aluminum, the upward test of the 20-day moving average resistance
.
