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This week, aluminum prices soared and fell, with Shanghai aluminum rising by 3.
28% and Lun aluminum rising by about 3.
2%; Macro fluctuations in the week have a greater impact on the internal and external aluminum prices, but the current global aluminum supply gap still exists, aluminum prices still have some support below, short-term in the pressure of interest rate pessimism and inventory increase, aluminum prices or there is a certain downward demand, Shanghai aluminum main focus on 22000-23000 range shock, Lun aluminum focus on 3120-2250.
This week, the performance of Lun aluminum rushed back down, and Lun aluminum once broke through a new high since 2008, reaching 3333 US dollars / ton, a cumulative increase of nearly 3.
2% as of Friday; The US CPI data for January rose sharply during the week, up 7.
5%, affected by it, the market's expectations for the Fed's March interest rate hike strengthened, and bullish sentiment fell; And due to the sharp rise in London aluminum inventory, overseas supply side concerns have gradually weakened, and short-term London aluminum prices may continue to run weakly; However, considering that the current global aluminum supply gap still exists, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the changes in Lun aluminum inventory, if it turns to destocking again, aluminum prices may continue to recover, and Lun aluminum short-term attention to the shock range of 3120-2250
.
In terms of the market, although the price rebounded sharply this week, traders and downstream enterprises did not fully enter the market due to the impact of the Spring Festival, dragging down market transactions, and market transactions are expected to improve
next week as enterprises resume work.
In East China, overseas aluminum plants due to the energy crisis increased production, and the domestic Guangxi Baise area due to the epidemic alumina, electrolytic aluminum plants were affected, the market worries about the supply side intensified, after the holiday aluminum prices ushered in a "red start", the highest increase in a single day exceeded 600 yuan, 4 consecutive days of increase of more than 1600 yuan / ton, and then gave up a small part of the increase; As of Friday, spot aluminum prices in East China were between 22,920-22,960 yuan / ton, up 1,280 yuan / ton from before the holiday, an increase of 6%.
In South China, as of Friday, the price of Foshan Nanhai aluminum ingot tickets was between 23310-23410 yuan / ton, up 1440 yuan / ton from before the holiday, performing better than East
China.
In terms of market transactions, downstream enterprise procurement is mostly reflected in Friday, but due to concerns that prices continue to decline, there are not many stockpiles, and there is mainly demand
.
Shanghai aluminum rose as high as 23,415 yuan / ton this week, with a sharp correction at the end of the day, with a cumulative weekly increase of 3.
28%.
In the short term, aluminum prices will continue the trend of shock correction, or there is still some downside; The lower support focuses on 22,000.
In the medium and long term, downstream consumption is expected to continue to support prices to remain high
.
