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Aluminum prices fluctuated
at a high level yesterday.
The overseas European energy crisis continues to ferment, the severe situation in Ukraine has triggered market concerns about overseas supply, and due to the greater uncertainty of overseas natural gas supply, production reduction may expand.
In 2021, China's total primary aluminum imports will be 1.
5797 million tons, an increase of 48.
7%
year-on-year.
In terms of domestic fundamentals, Yunnan, Shanxi and other provinces have slightly increased the production of electrolytic aluminum, and the operating capacity has continued to rise
.
In terms of cost and profit, the suspension of production in Shandong may cause the overall production of alumina to decline in February, which will form a significant support for the price of alumina, and it is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent increase in alumina prices to the disturbance of corporate profits
.
On the demand side, downstream aluminum processing enterprises near the Spring Festival have successively stopped work and holiday, and demand has weakened
.
Aluminum rods continue to be sluggish, and aluminum rod market inventory continues to accumulate.
In terms of the market, with the impact of the low accumulation level of domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory, the spot circulation is further tight, and the market expects the accumulation level in the holiday is limited, under the expectation of post-holiday consumption recovery, the expectation of destocking is increased, and the spot is supported by the premium, before the afternoon, East China spot maintained a small discount pattern, which is a high level in the past 3 years, East China spot is firm, affected by some middlemen before the holiday, the actual circulation of aluminum ingots is limited, and East China spot trading is concentrated around 21440 yuan / ton
。
In terms of inventory, as of January 27, domestic aluminum ingot stocks were 726,000 tons, 01,000 tons
more than Monday.
LME aluminium inventories on Jan.
27 were -11,475 tonnes to 823525 tonnes
from the previous session.
The domestic social library has slightly accumulated, the consumption areas of Nanhai, Gongyi, Shanghai and Hangzhou contributed the main increase, and Wuxi has gone to the warehouse due to the availability of outbound goods and the decrease in arrivals, and it is expected that the accumulation during the Spring Festival will not be as good as in previous years
.
With the Spring Festival approaching the heavier risk aversion of bulls and the emergence of inventory inflection points, it is expected that aluminum prices will have a correction trend in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see unilaterally
.
