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Last week, aluminum prices showed high volatility, the center of gravity fell slightly, in which the pattern of internal strength and external weakness continued, and the profit window of aluminum ingot imports opened historically, putting pressure on domestic continued bullish expectations
.
On the supply side: profit repair and production reduction slowed down the resumption of production; Cost side: Alumina rebound thermal coal is weak, profit has improved
.
In terms of premium discount: the domestic spot continued to maintain a large premium, and the LME maintained a large discount; In terms of stocks: LME stocks rose continuously to 1.
35 million tons, down 21,600 tons to 389,000 tons in the previous period, and social reserves fell 25,000 tons to 1.
13 million tons
.
At present, due to the promotion of real estate and infrastructure rush to promote downstream consumption, but with the price rebound, the downstream willingness to continue to stock up declined, and the replacement of scrap aluminum decreased, and the supply side was also affected by the recovery of profits, and the reduction of production disappeared and resumed production began to gradually advance, which can also be confirmed by the slowdown in inventory decline
.
This week, the spot side support is still there, but the demand margin has slowed down, the import arbitrage window has opened, and the aluminum price continues to have greater upward pressure, and the operation is recommended to test the high above 12,500 yuan / ton
.
