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Yesterday's aluminum price fluctuated at a high level, Shanghai aluminum morning continued the trend of the previous night, bulls entered a large number of positions, and the highest aluminum price touched 21640 yuan / ton
.
The overseas European energy crisis continues to ferment, the severe situation in Ukraine has triggered market concerns about overseas supply, and due to the greater uncertainty of overseas natural gas supply, production reduction may expand.
Fundamentally, Yunnan, Shanxi and other provinces have slightly increased the production of electrolytic aluminum, and the operating capacity has continued to rise
.
In terms of cost and profit, the suspension of production in Shandong may cause the overall production of alumina to decline in February, which will form a significant support for the price of alumina, and it is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent increase in alumina prices to the disturbance of corporate profits
.
On the demand side, downstream aluminum processing enterprises near the Spring Festival have successively stopped work and holiday, and demand has weakened
.
Aluminum rods continue to be sluggish, and aluminum rod market inventories continue to accumulate.
In terms of inventory, the domestic aluminum ingot social library as a whole shows a trend of accumulation, but the current accumulation range is small
.
As of January 24, domestic aluminum ingot stocks were 725,000 tons, 01,000 tons
more than last Thursday.
On January 26, LME aluminum stocks moved -10,625 tonnes from the previous session to 835,000 tonnes
.
In terms of the market, pre-holiday spot trading is still gradually weakening, spot trading near 10 yuan / ton discount for the month, narrowing the spot premium range by about 10 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, pre-holiday aluminum ingot inventory began to accumulate, postponed than in previous years, including rain and snow weather and epidemic and other reasons, transportation efficiency slightly declined
.
In terms of price, with the approaching Spring Festival bulls' risk aversion and the emergence of inventory inflection points, it is expected that aluminum prices will have a correction trend in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see unilaterally
.
