Aluminum prices fluctuate widely, maintaining a weak pattern in the short term

On the supply side, there is still room for electrolytic aluminum profits, production is recovering rapidly, and the operating rate of enterprises has risen
steadily.
Although the resumption of domestic electrolytic aluminum production and the acceleration of production have boosted domestic electrolytic aluminum production, the geopolitical tensions in the early stage have further affected the stability of overseas electrolytic aluminum production, and overseas electrolytic aluminum production will be affected to a certain extent; Driven by high profits, some enterprises have resumed production on the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply side, and the current production capacity is 40 million tons, and the planned new production capacity has gradually begun to be released
.

On the demand side, the Fed has started the cycle of interest rate hike and balance sheet reduction, and the trend of overseas economic highs has been established, dragging down the overseas demand for electrolytic aluminum, but due to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the rise in energy prices has led to an amplification
of the supply gap.
Domestic demand still needs further efforts
from the steady growth policy.
With the expectation of overseas shortfall, the expectation of increasing the export of China's aluminum products in the later period has risen, and the current consumption is gradually recovering, and the demand for aluminum rods, plates, strips and foils has improved
.

In terms of inventory, aluminum rods and electrolytic aluminum restart the destocking rhythm
.
As of June 30, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 751,000 tons, down 17,000 tons from last week, and Wuxi Foshan began to destock, and consumption has been repaired
.
The spot inventory of aluminum rods was 159,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons
.

With the continuous decline of inventory, the current domestic aluminum social inventory has come to a low level, but the spot performance is still weak, and the premium continues to decline, mainly because the downstream is pessimistic about future order expectations and the market procurement and stocking willingness is low
.

Aluminum inventories at home and abroad have continued to fall recently, and it is expected that the supporting role of aluminum will be further strengthened
.

Due to the support of costs, in this round of commodity decline, the decline in aluminum prices is relatively small
.
Recently, the smelting cost of electrolytic aluminum has declined, but it is not as much as the decline in aluminum prices, and the cost support is still effective
.
If aluminum prices fall sharply again in the future, or stabilize at the current level
.