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On Monday, Lun aluminum closed down 1.
38%; The main 11 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed up 1.
61% on the day and 0.
08%
in overnight trading.
During the National Day holiday, Lun Aluminum rose 2.
44%.
At present, supply and demand are expected to be weak, and aluminum prices fluctuate
widely.
Recently, the London Metal Exchange (LME) negotiated a possible ban on Russian metal trading, from the production point of view, Rusal Combined Company has an annual production capacity of about 4.
5 million tons, accounting for about 6% of the total global electrolytic aluminum production capacity, accounting for 13% of the electrolytic aluminum production capacity outside China.
Fundamentally, at present, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Yunnan generally reduce production by 20%, considering that the power supply remains tight, there is a possibility
that the local production reduction will expand again.
Electrolytic aluminum production in Sichuan is gradually resuming, but the output release is relatively slow
.
On the demand side, stimulated by policy measures such as infrastructure support and guaranteed handover of buildings, consumption may be marginally good
in October.
In the short term, the fundamentals of domestic aluminum prices still have some support, and if supply continues to tighten or consumption improves significantly, aluminum prices are expected to get a phased boost
.
However, the current US dollar liquidity shock and the weakening of global terminal demand are still the market's worries, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of price fluctuations brought by macro sentiment, and short-term recommendations are mainly
wait-and-see.
