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Aluminum prices fluctuated
in a narrow range yesterday.
On the macro front, the Fed raised interest rates by 50BP as scheduled, further clarifying that interest rates will be slower but interest rates will be higher, but the market is still uncertain
about the final target.
The dollar index edged up to around
104.
5.
Domestically, the real estate stimulus policy continues, and Vice Premier Liu He pointed out yesterday evening that real estate is a pillar industry
of the national economy.
Recently, local epidemic prevention policies have been further relaxed, but concerns about whether the epidemic will form a drag on the economy in the short term are rising, and market optimism has weakened
slightly.
On the supply side, overseas energy pressure has gradually eased, and it is expected that the possibility of further reduction in overseas aluminum production capacity in 23 years is low, but the increase is limited
.
Domestically, the impact of production restrictions has not been further expanded, but the pace of capacity recovery in Sichuan is slow, while the affected production capacity range in Yunnan is basically maintained
.
In Guizhou, affected by electricity, there may be a reduction of 280,000 tons of production, and there will still be 180,000 tons of new capacity or later
.
At present, the affected production capacity is mainly affected by winter and hydropower problems, and it is expected that the release of production capacity will need to wait until the second half of
next year.
In terms of downstream demand, enterprises are still mainly based on just-needed procurement, and the transaction is general
.
In terms of terminal consumption, although the actual demand is generally weak due to seasonal influences, the recent macro expectations continue to improve
.
In terms of inventory, exchange inventories are still at historical lows, and social inventories continue to decline
.
On the whole, in the short term, the social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots remains low, and the overall spot market is tight, which still has some support for the fundamentals of domestic aluminum prices, and the current contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent for the time being, and it is recommended to treat
it with the idea of high selling and low absorption.
