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Trade Service
Last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates abruptly, and the global central bank rate cutting boom arrived
.
However, the global epidemic spread is grim, the market reacted flatly to the central bank that expected the follow-up interest rate cut, the market panic increased, and the European and American stock markets fell seriously after the interest rate cut, dragging aluminum prices to hit the low again during the week
.
Data show that China's alumina output in February was 5.
403 million tons, down 0.
52% month-on-month and 8.
19% year-on-year; China's electrolytic aluminum output was 2.
867 million tons, an increase of 6.
9% year-on-year, as of the end of February, the national electrolytic aluminum operating capacity scale was 36.
6 million tons / year, the annual production capacity was 40.
99 million tons, and the national electrolytic aluminum enterprise operating rate was 89.
3%.
Although the domestic new crown epidemic has not directly led to the reduction of production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises, due to the dual pressure of falling aluminum prices and rising costs, some high-cost enterprises may consider entering the annual maintenance cycle
in advance.
In terms of new production capacity, new production capacity in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other provinces continued to maintain a slow upward momentum, and some projects under construction were delayed by the fall in aluminum prices and the delay of workers
' arrival.
From the perspective of downstream resumption of work, the overall start and recovery rate has increased, but at the same time, due to the decrease in automobile transportation resistance, the arrival inventory continued to increase, and the weekly social aluminum ingot inventory increased by 103,000 tons to 1.
488 million tons
.
Trading between traders is more general, because the spot price is at a relatively low level, and the discount has not narrowed significantly, and the middleman has the willingness to receive goods but shows a stalemate
in the price.
In addition, some of the market players received goods this week, and downstream manufacturers performed generally this week, with some stocks on Wednesday and Friday, which was significantly better than last week
.
Next week is the last week before closing, and the premium is expected to narrow
further.
In the short term, the global epidemic has brought a double blow to demand and supply, market sentiment has eased slowly, and aluminum prices are weak, mainly to build a bottom
.
Before the epidemic is not fully controlled, the recovery of terminal consumption is slow, and the growth rate of enterprises will still be limited by the impact of order problems, and the pressure on Shanghai aluminum is still under pressure
.
Shanghai aluminum is still in a weak and negative pattern when it increases its position, and hit a new recent low
during the session.
It is recommended that investors keep the short idea unchanged, those with short orders can continue to hold, in the case of multi-cycle resonance, the bear market bottom-seeking market is still continuing, and the trend is mainly
short.
