Aluminum prices continue to rebound, insufficient momentum, market transaction deviation

On the macro front, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49% in July, down 1.
2 percentage points from the previous month, waiting for further policy stimulus
.
Overseas, the recent rise in natural gas and electricity prices in Europe requires attention to the production of overseas refineries, which is expected to be difficult to resume in the short term, and if the energy problem continues to ferment, there is a possibility
of production reduction and expansion.

Domestic fundamentals maintain a pattern
of strong supply and weak demand.
On the supply side, there has been no large-scale production reduction for the time being, and supply-side pressure still exists
.
On the demand side, the market feedback downstream overall inquiry is weak, transaction deviation
.
On the demand side, the last off-season has not yet ended, the mainstream downstream sector has fewer new orders, insufficient consumption has led to the rise in aluminum prices, aluminum ingot social inventory has begun to increase, aluminum rods are also in a state
of accumulation.

In terms of inventory, the latest electrolytic aluminum social inventory has accumulated, and the accumulation area is mainly Foshan area, mainly due to poor market transactions, and there is accumulation pressure
in the later aluminum ingot inventory.

In terms of price, although the marginal cost supports the price below, the basic supply and weak demand face certain pressure on the price, and it is recommended that short-term neutral treatment is the mainstay, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact
of macro on market sentiment.

On the whole, the short-term macro bearish release gives aluminum prices room to rebound, but the momentum for continuous rebound is insufficient, the spot market transaction deviation, and the spot discount continues to expand
.
Prices remain volatile
.