Aluminum prices closed up before the holiday Downstream consumption is general

Overnight, Lun aluminum has a significant recovery, the upper resistance refers to around 1785, and the lower support refers to around 1705; The main 1911 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed higher before the holiday, the lower support refers to around 13800, the short-term test of the support near the position, and the upper resistance refers to the
14150 position.

On the macro front, the manufacturing PMI of major overseas economies released during the National Day holiday was weak, the US ISM manufacturing index fell to a new low since June 2009 in September, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI in September hit a new low since August 2016, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI in September hit the lowest level since October 2012, France's September manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations and the previous value, and Germany's September manufacturing PMI hit the lowest level since June 2009.
It also reflects the general increase in downward pressure on the economies of various countries, and the weak data has also increased investors' risk aversion, and the European and American stock markets performed significantly poorly
in the first two days of the holiday.

Domestically, China's manufacturing PMI for September released before the holiday was slightly higher than expected, which means that the downward pressure on the manufacturing industry has eased
.
From the perspective of the industry, the previously announced electrolytic aluminum social inventory continues to go to storage, and on the whole, it still maintains the rhythm of passive destocking, which supports the price of electrolytic aluminum
.
The price of alumina at the raw material end has stabilized, the current national average price has stood at 2600, Henan, Shanxi, Shandong part of the alumina plant before and after the National Day due to environmental protection reasons to limit production, in the short term the supply of alumina will be tight, but in the medium term has little impact on production, so the space above alumina is not high, the support for electrolytic aluminum is weakening
.

The recent prices of downstream aluminum profiles, aluminum plates and aluminum rods reflect the general situation of downstream consumption, and the prices of various processed materials are not as strong
as expected under the background of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" consumption season.

At present, although the aluminum market is in the peak consumption season in the short term, downstream consumption is not as strong as expected, and the negative transmission of macro has begun to appear, and the downward trend is gradually apparent
.
During the National Day holiday, overseas economic data was generally biased, and the price of aluminum in the external market once reached a new low
.
However, at present, the domestic macro has not yet established a downward direction, unless we see that aluminum demand is significantly weakened or supply is significantly improved, the space below aluminum prices will not be too large
.