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Behind the continued rise in aluminum prices this week reflects the market's pessimistic expectations
for energy shortages in Europe.
Even so, domestic consumption will gradually weaken in the past two weeks is also a high probability event, if aluminum prices rise sharply, downstream procurement willingness continues to suppress, inventory or accelerate the completion of the transformation from destocking to accumulation, then spot support will also weaken.
On the macro front, the news of aluminum plant shutdown caused by the sharp rise in European electricity prices during the week gradually decreased, the supply interference factors subsided, and the momentum of aluminum price rise was insufficient; In addition, according to research reports from Goldman Sachs and other institutions, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates at least four times in 2022, which is more
than the three widely believed by the market since the end of December last year.
The European energy crisis continues to have an impact on overseas aluminum supply, with the rise in electricity prices, the difficulty of aluminum production has further expanded, the tide of production cuts in Europe has gradually spread, and it is expected that there will still be more than 500,000 tons of production capacity reduction, and concerns have pushed aluminum prices to a new high
.
In terms of inventory, on January 13, the national aluminum ingot inventory reported 742,000 tons, down 48,000 tons from last week, and the denaturalization range was large; the 6063 aluminum rod inventory reported 161,500 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from last week, an increase of a large
increase.
It is expected that the accumulation
will gradually begin after entering the second half of January.
In terms of fundamentals, although the social treasury continued to decline during the week, the actual consumption of the market has declined, and the destocking is more due to the lack of actual arrivals in various places due to disruptions such as the epidemic
.
On the whole, in the short term, it is believed that aluminum prices continue to explore the space remains, but it may have been limited, the tight domestic supply and demand situation still continues to support aluminum prices, the support level below the main force of Shanghai aluminum can be concerned about 20,500, the operation recommends that the downstream demand a small amount of replenishment or wait and see, it is expected that next week's spot aluminum decline will slow down, the overall will continue to fluctuate operation
.
