Aluminum prices are weak and volatile, pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand

Yesterday's aluminum prices were weak and volatile, mainly due to the recent resumption of domestic production and new production capacity continued to release, coupled with the impact of the epidemic on transportation, resulting in a suspension
of downstream consumption levels.
Under the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the export and transportation of Rusal may be blocked, coupled with European energy prices at a high level, European electrolytic aluminum production reduction concerns continue to heat up
.

In terms of domestic fundamentals, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, but the transportation of aluminum ingots in some areas was hindered
by the epidemic.
In terms of consumption, downstream consumption just needs seasonal slow recovery, aluminum profiles and aluminum plate and foil and other sectors operating rate rebounded, but the current outbreak of the epidemic in various places or demand has been suppressed, and the spot transaction in the South China market is poor
.

In terms of inventory, social library data shows that inventory has been dematerialized, or there are factors affected by poor transportation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow-up destocking efforts
.
On March 21, domestic aluminum ingot stocks were 1.
061 million tons, 28,000 tons
more than Monday.
On March 23, LME aluminum stocks fell by 9,025 tons from the previous session to 696,000 tons
.

In terms of price, the threat of energy crisis to overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity may continue, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the progress of domestic electrolytic aluminum production and the recovery of downstream demand, the recent development of the epidemic may interfere with transportation and procurement, but the low level of inventory at home and abroad supports the price, and it is recommended to treat it unilaterally in the short term
.