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Yesterday's aluminum prices were weak and volatile during the day and rebounded
slightly at night.
In the past month, Shanghai aluminum has continued to oscillate, operating in the range of 17500-19000 yuan / ton, fluctuating
around the cost line.
Affected by the rumors of the LME banning the delivery of Rusal, Lun Aluminum rose 7.
45% during the National Day, leading the non-ferrous metal sector
.
However, the rumor has little impact on domestic fundamentals, and Shanghai aluminum did not make up for the rise after the holiday, and as of October 11, Shanghai aluminum closed at 18465 yuan / ton, and there was no upward breakthrough trend
.
Fundamentally, aluminum plants in Sichuan, Guangxi and other regions are still in the process of slowly resuming production, and the new production capacity in Inner Mongolia and Guizhou is also being released, while electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Yunnan have generally reduced production by 20%, and there is a possibility
that local production cuts will expand again.
On the demand side, stimulated by policy measures such as infrastructure support and guaranteed handover of buildings, consumption may be marginally good, but the epidemic interference in many places in China may interfere with aluminum consumption and transportation
.
In terms of spot, the spot trading performance of aluminum ingots after the holiday was relatively light
.
In the short term, the fundamentals of domestic aluminum prices still have some support, and if supply continues to tighten or consumption improves significantly, aluminum prices are expected to get a phased boost
.
However, the current US dollar liquidity shock and the expected strengthening of weakening global terminal demand are still the market's concerns, and short-term recommendations are mainly
wait-and-see.
At present, the macro is still dominated by pessimism, and the fundamental supply side reduces production and resonates with the recovery of the demand side, but the resonance strength is still insufficient, and it is expected that the aluminum price will be dominated by strong oscillations in the third quarter, focusing on the follow-up action of the LME and domestic downstream consumption
.