Aluminum prices are weak and volatile, and downstream demand is recovering seasonally

In terms of news, the Albras aluminum plant in Brazil is preparing to restart production lines, and it is expected to start the first batch of electrolyzers in the second quarter and resume operations
in the fourth quarter.
At present, affected by the political situation in Russia and Ukraine, the overseas European energy crisis is still fermenting, and there is great uncertainty
in overseas natural gas supply before the beginning of spring.

In terms of fundamentals, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other places have begun to resume production, and the process of resumption of production is different
.
In terms of consumption, downstream consumption just needs a seasonal slow recovery, but considering the current high aluminum prices or suppressing demand, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact
of the epidemic and environmental protection control in the north on the downstream resumption of work.

In terms of inventory, social bank data shows that inventory has accumulated
.
On February 21, domestic aluminum ingot stocks were 1.
081 million tons, 42,000 tons
more than last Thursday.
LME aluminum inventories fell by 1,225 tonnes from the previous session to 834,000 tonnes
on Feb.
23.

In terms of prices, the threat of the energy crisis to overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity may continue to the beginning of spring, and with the resumption of construction in various places after the holiday, driven by the construction, completion and infrastructure projects of real estate stock, consumption can be expected to pick up, but it is necessary to be wary of the fluctuation of market expectations for interest rate hikes in the late first quarter
.