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Last week, aluminum prices ran weakly and fell below the 10,000,000 mark
.
On the 16th, Shanghai aluminum closed at 18,740 yuan / ton, a weekly decline of 2.
7%.
On the macro front, China's November economic data performed weaker than expected
.
Fundamentally, due to the sharp drop in temperature in Guizhou, electricity consumption has risen, and Guizhou Power Grid requires electrolytic aluminum plants to reduce load from December 13, or affect production capacity by 400,000 tons; The inlet window remains closed and there is no inflow of electrolytic aluminum
.
On the demand side, under the influence of multiple factors such as high aluminum prices, the arrival of the off-season, and the decline in exports, new orders for aluminum downstream domestic and overseas have decreased, and the operating rate has weakened
.
In terms of inventory, on December 15, 2022, SMM counted that the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 482,000 tons, down 18,000 tons from last Thursday's inventory, down 34,000 tons from the end of November, and down 429,000 tons from the same period last year, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory reached a new low
.
In terms of news, Baolau Group signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement
with Ningpu Times.
In terms of industries, macro bearish factors were released, and the Fed's policy began to shift, slowing down interest rate hikes as scheduled, but the Fed's identification of interest rate hike stance and concerns about the economic outlook weighed on market bullish enthusiasm
.
The rebound of the domestic epidemic in November has had a certain impact on the stable recovery of the economy, and a series of stable growth policies have yet to be implemented
.
The fundamental supply-side disturbance reappeared, aluminum plants reduced production, supply growth slowed down, superimposed arrivals decreased, and electrolytic aluminum social inventories reached a new low
.
In the off-season, the lack of demand is becoming more prominent, putting pressure on aluminum prices, but the low global inventory level is expected to have strong support below electrolytic aluminum, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain weak oscillations
in the near future.
