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Aluminum prices ran weakly yesterday, mainly affected by the Fed's interest rate hike expectations and the repeated pledge of aluminum ingots in some warehouses
.
Yesterday's main contract 2207 opened at 20650 yuan / ton, the highest price of the day was 20695 yuan / ton, the lowest 20030 yuan / ton, closed at 20280 yuan / ton, down 495 yuan from the previous trading day's closing price, down 2.
38%.
The recent outbreak of repeated pledging incidents may implicate more trade pledge compliance issues or trigger more spot disputes, causing market concerns
in the short term.
In terms of domestic supply, as of the end of May, the domestic electrolytic aluminum built production capacity of 43.
801 million tons, operating capacity of 40.
463 million tons, basically maintained stable operation, electrolytic aluminum production capacity steadily increased but slowed down compared with before, mainly due to the reduction of production of individual enterprises and part of the production capacity to be resumed is under maintenance
.
In terms of consumption, the epidemic situation in East China has improved, but at present, the recovery of downstream real demand is not obvious, coupled with the frequent outbreaks in North China, the overall operating rate recovery is limited, and it is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent development of
the epidemic.
In terms of inventory, with the improvement of the epidemic and the support of policies for transportation, domestic social inventories maintained destocking during the week, Wuxi, Gongyi and other regions maintained destocking, and overseas inventories fell below 460,000 tons, at a historical low
.
On May 30, 2022, SMM counted 923,000 tons of domestic electrolytic aluminum social stocks, down 14,000 tons
from last Thursday's stocks.
As of June 1, LME aluminum stocks fell by 5,000 tonnes from the previous session to 453,900 tonnes
.
In general, for the current market structure, the fundamental contradiction lies in the divergence
in demand.
The decline in terminal demand real estate is difficult to change, but at present, the resumption of work and production in Shanghai has successfully released a good signal, and there is still continuous growth in automobiles, photovoltaics and other fields, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the recovery of consumption stimulated by policies
.
At present, the low inventory base encounters unexpected events that lead to an increase in spot liquidity, and the market's worries may be repeated
after rational digestion.
Therefore, it is recommended that you can try to go long
on dips in the short term.
