Aluminum prices are weak and need to pay attention to the follow-up destocking strength

Overseas, Russia and Ukraine recently opened the next round of negotiations to pay attention to subsequent changes in the international situation
.
Due to the impact of the epidemic in China, the transportation of enterprises under local control has been affected to a certain extent, and there has not been any impact
on production at present.
Under the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Rusal's exports and transportation may be blocked, coupled with European energy prices continue to rise, European electrolytic aluminum production reduction concerns continue to heat up
.

Domestic fundamentals, mainly Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other places, began to resume production, and the process of resumption of production is different
.
The aluminum market shows a state of external strength and internal weakness, and the import window continues to close
.
In terms of consumption, downstream consumption just needs to recover seasonally, but the current outbreak of the epidemic in various places may suppress
demand.

In terms of inventory, social library data shows that inventory has dematerialized, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow-up destocking efforts
.
On March 14, domestic aluminum ingot stocks were 1.
121 million tons, 21,000 tons
more than Monday.
LME aluminum inventories fell by 3,100 tonnes from the previous session to 753,000 tonnes
on March 14.

In terms of price, the threat of the energy crisis to overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity may continue, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the progress of domestic electrolytic aluminum production and the recovery of downstream demand, but the recent development of the epidemic may interfere with transportation and procurement, and it is recommended to treat it unilaterally with a wait-and-see approach
.