Aluminum prices are strong and volatile, pay attention to overseas situations and domestic inventory changes

Under the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the export and transportation of Rusal may be blocked, coupled with European energy prices at a high level, European electrolytic aluminum production reduction concerns continue to heat up
.
Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased slightly, but the output in the first quarter was difficult to exceed the level of the same period last year, and the transportation of aluminum ingots in some areas was hindered
under the influence of the epidemic.

In terms of consumption, downstream consumption just needs seasonal slow recovery, aluminum profiles and aluminum plate, strip foil and other sectors operating rate rebounded, but the current outbreak of the epidemic in various places may suppress
demand.

In terms of inventory, social library data shows that inventory has been dematerialized, or there are factors affected by poor transportation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow-up destocking efforts
.
On March 21, domestic aluminum ingot stocks were 1.
061 million tons, 28,000 tons
more than Monday.
On March 24, LME aluminum stocks decreased by 6,250 tons from the previous session to 689,600 tons
.

In terms of price, the threat of energy crisis to overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity may continue, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the progress of domestic electrolytic aluminum production and the recovery of downstream demand, the recent development of the epidemic may interfere with transportation and procurement, but the low level of inventory at home and abroad supports the price, and it is recommended to treat it unilaterally in the short term
.