Aluminum prices are strong and volatile, and the reality and macro game are fierce

In the external market, LME aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange were weak and volatile
.
Specifically, the main LME aluminum is now at $2456.
00 / ton, down 0.
04%, the highest intraday touch is $2467.
00 / ton, the lowest is 2447.
00 US dollars / ton
.

Recently, the downstream stock in South China is active, and spot transactions are more active
.
Mainly spot heavily discounted futures and basis arbitrage funds under the Contango structure entered, but spot bottoming brings plate value preservation, which inhibits prices, and logistics will gradually stop in the near future, entering the stage
of supply and demand double speculation expectations.

On the supply side, Guizhou region recently issued a load reduction notice, limited electricity affected electrolytic aluminum supply continued to shrink, it is expected that the three rounds of production reduction in Guizhou area will affect a total of 800,000 tons of production capacity, while Sichuan and other places have not released production increments, so the overall supply of electrolytic aluminum is in a downward trend
.

On the demand side, with the Spring Festival holiday approaching, most aluminum downstream processing enterprises will reduce production or suspend work for holidays around January 10, and are expected to resume work and production
around the Lantern Festival.

On the whole, the recent rebound in aluminum prices has stimulated downstream replenishment sentiment to a certain extent, and affected by the tight power in the southwest region, the market is still worried about the supply side, and it is expected that electrolytic aluminum production will decline in January, and considering the recent macro improvement, it is recommended to treat it with the idea of bargain hunting in the short term
.