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Yesterday's aluminum prices were strongly volatile, mainly because the Fed's interest rate hike overnight was in line with market expectations, macro sentiment picked up, coupled with the situation of downstream goods taking near the National Day holiday, and the market transaction atmosphere was better
.
On the macro front, the Fed raised interest rates as scheduled, and its dot plot was more hawkish than expected on the future rate hike path, coupled with risk aversion, the dollar index reached a new high
.
Domestically, the recent real estate stimulus policies have continued to be introduced, but it remains to be seen whether they can effectively promote real estate, and the momentum of rapid recovery of domestic macros is still insufficient
.
On the supply side, the overall impact of overseas production capacity is limited, affected by energy factors, European and American electrolytic aluminum enterprises have reduced production by 1.
3 million tons in the past 1 year, and there are still aluminum plants or further production reductions, but the pace of production reduction is slowing down, superimposed on the increase in production in South America, the overall impact margin is weakened
.
Domestically, the impact of power cuts in Sichuan has basically subsided, but it may still take about 2 months for production capacity to recover, while Yunnan according to the latest survey data, the scale of production reduction may be further expanded, and the affected production capacity may reach 1 million to 1.
5 million tons, and the time may last until next year's flood period, pay attention to its progress
.
In terms of downstream demand, it is still in a weak state, and the demand performance is average
.
In terms of inventory, LME and domestic social inventories have shown signs of bottoming, confirming that demand is not good, in addition, Rusal is currently affected by geopolitics or entered the exchange inventory, and the external aluminum price is significantly weaker than the internal market
.
Overall, in the context of a strong US dollar, the non-ferrous metal sector is under pressure as a whole, and there is uncertainty in the negative drag of the superimposed supply side, while the demand side is temporarily difficult to improve, and the space above the aluminum price is limited
.
