Aluminum prices are strong and volatile, and the fundamentals maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in July 2022 was about 652,200 tons, an increase of 7.
38% month-on-month and 39.
05%
year-on-year.
From January to July 2022, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 4.
1606 million tons, an increase of 34.
9%
over January to July last year.

Overseas, European energy prices are still at a high level recently, and it is expected that overseas smelters will not be able to resume production in the short term, and if the energy problem continues to ferment, there is a possibility
of production reduction and expansion.

Domestic supply remains high, and it is necessary to pay attention to the power supply at high temperatures
.
In terms of demand, the market transaction is general, and the overall maintenance is mainly demand-based
.
In terms of inventory, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum showed a small accumulation, due to poor market transactions, there is still accumulation pressure
in the later aluminum ingot inventory.

In terms of price, low inventory and marginal cost support below aluminum prices, the recent energy crisis and aluminum plant accidents have stimulated prices, but long-term supply pressure and consumption has not improved to a certain extent on the price rebound height, it is recommended to be short-term neutral treatment, need to pay attention to the impact
of macro on market sentiment.