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Aluminum prices continued to be strong during the day yesterday, and fluctuated
at a high level at night due to the surge in LME inventories and expectations of interest rate hikes in the United States.
On the macro front, the US unseasonally adjusted CPI rose 7.
5% year-on-year in January, 7.
3% expected, and 7% in the previous month, and it is necessary to pay attention to the Fed's
interest rate hike in March.
In terms of news, the recent continuation of the epidemic in Guangxi has affected the local production of 420,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum and 1.
2 million tons of alumina and will continue to put pressure on the transportation of the aluminum industry chain, and it is necessary to pay attention to the epidemic control situation
.
The overseas European energy crisis is still fermenting, and production cuts may expand
again due to the greater uncertainty of overseas natural gas supply before the spring season in March.
In terms of domestic fundamentals, after the dual-control atmosphere was corrected, various places began to resume production one after another, mainly in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other places
.
In terms of consumption, the downstream is still in a state of gradual resumption of work, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact
of the epidemic and environmental protection control in the north on the downstream resumption of work.
In terms of inventory, the latest domestic social library data shows that the accumulation range is not as good as in previous years, and it is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent inventory changes
.
On February 10, domestic aluminum ingot stocks were 950,000 tons, 84,000 tons
more than Monday.
LME aluminum inventories rose 119,000 tonnes from the previous session to 881,000 tonnes on Feb.
10
.
The current threat of the energy crisis to overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity may continue until the beginning of spring, and with the resumption of construction in various places after the holiday, driven by real estate stock construction, completion and infrastructure projects, consumption can be expected to pick up, but it is necessary to be wary of the fluctuation of market expectations for interest rate hikes in the late first quarter
.
