Aluminum prices are still subject to supply pressure and open shock mode in the short term

Overseas, Russia's natural gas supply problems to Europe still exist, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the subsequent European aluminum plants will be affected by energy problems again
.

On the supply side, the profit of alumina smelting is relatively stable, the new expansion project has been steadily landed, and although the import volume has been suppressed, the domestic supply of alumina has become looser; If the subsequent resumption of production capacity is successfully landed, it is expected that the output of electrolytic aluminum in July will be about 3.
48 million tons, but the recent sharp correction in electrolytic aluminum prices may have a certain impact on the production and resumption of production enthusiasm of smelters.

In terms of consumption, domestic consumption has entered the off-season, and overseas demand is facing downward pressure, but the sharp correction in aluminum prices has stimulated some consumption, and the sustainability remains to be seen
.
Last week, domestic electrolytic aluminum social stocks fell by 26,000 tons, and bonded zone stocks fell by 1,800 tons
.
With the temporary easing of market sentiment and the cost of electrolytic aluminum, aluminum prices have been revised upward, but there are still hidden dangers in the macro, and it is recommended to maintain a wait-and-see and cautious entry
.

Overall, low inventories coupled with the recent macro sentiment repair have given aluminum prices a certain degree of support, but medium and long-term aluminum prices are still subject to supply pressure
.
At present, the repair of macro news has led to the rebound of commodities, but the rebound is limited, and it is expected that short-term aluminum prices will remain volatile
.