Aluminum prices are running strongly, paying attention to the epidemic and the impact of supply and demand

On the macro front, U.
S.
retail sales rose 0.
3% in August, better than economists expected a 0.
1% decline, and the July data was revised downward to -0.
4%.

U.
S.
industrial output unexpectedly fell 0.
2 percent month-on-month in August, but manufacturing output rose 0.
1 percent month-on-month, the second straight monthly increase and better than economists expected
.

Domestically, with the implementation of Yunnan's power shortage and power rationing policy, the production reduction of local electrolytic aluminum enterprises may be between 10% and 20%, but some aluminum plants feedback that the scale of production reduction of enterprises will continue to expand, or reach 20-30%.

Considering that the total operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan at the end of August is 5.
21 million tons, if the scale of production reduction is expanded to 20%-30%, the corresponding production capacity reduction may be expanded to 100-1.
5 million tons, and it is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent production situation
in Yunnan and other regions.

In terms of demand, the downstream just needs to take goods, aluminum prices are high, and most companies are cautious
in taking goods.
In terms of inventory, due to the concentrated arrival of goods within the festival but the slow pick-up, the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory has accumulated
.

On the whole, although the impact of power cuts in Sichuan-Chongqing and other areas in the early stage has weakened, it is difficult to recover local supply in the short term, and there is uncertainty about Yunnan's supply or affected by electricity, while downstream construction and new orders in the industry may improve with the arrival of the consumption season.